Democrats see polls as overestimating Trump’s strength

A recent national poll by The New York Times and Siena College showed former President Trump leading President Biden by 5 points, and a Democratic campaign spokesperson said the polls “consistently overestimate Donald Trump.” “And they underestimate Joe Biden.”

The comment symbolizes deep skepticism in some Democratic circles about Trump’s strength.

Biden supporters point to key results this cycle that show President Trump is underperforming in polls and failing to win over moderate voters, and that Democrats have outperformed expectations in a non-presidential cycle under Biden. Pointed out.

“We still have a long way to go. There’s a lot of work to do. But I think everyone in this town is overestimating their strengths and underestimating ours,” said Democratic strategist Simon. Rosenberg said.

Some Democrats, in particular, were quick to ignore the New York Times poll.

Strategists were perplexed by the poll’s even split among women, 46% each, given that 2020 exit polls showed Biden leading women by 15 percentage points. There is.

Democrats also have doubts Public opinion poll results Exit polls showed Trump had a 6-point lead over Biden among Latino voters, compared to Biden’s 33-point lead among Latino voters in 2020. Democratic strategists and pollsters noted that 97% of interviews with Latinos in the poll were conducted in English.

Even Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who ended his high-profile primary campaign against Biden on Wednesday, was skeptical of the poll results.

“When you see a 12% number in the NYT/Siena poll, you better believe it’s flawed,” he wrote on X (former Twitter name). “Only 5% even know who I am.”

The Biden campaign’s belief that President Trump is overrepresented in polls stems in large part from the fact that voter behavior has not matched expectations, including in this year’s primaries.

Trump was on track to win the Republican nomination, winning all but two of the primaries by wide margins, but fell short of poll predictions and struggled with voters who are expected to play a major role in November. are doing.

Trump is projected to win the Michigan primary by a 49 percentage point margin, according to an average of Decision Desk Headquarters polls, with Trump ultimately defeating Nikki Haley by 42 percentage points. Broke it. South Carolina was expected to win by 29 points and ended up leading the state by 20 points over Haley. Trump is projected to win New Hampshire by 14 points, and won the primary by 11 points, according to Decision Desk.

At the same time, Trump is doing well in some races, such as Virginia, where average polls show him leading by 25% and winning by 27%.

Amy Walter of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report wrote that Trump is entering the general election race “in the strongest shape he’s ever been.”

Election Day is still about eight months away, but polls show Trump leading Biden in a likely rematch of the 2020 race.

The Decision Desk average of national polls has Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by about 2 points, given that Mr. Trump won the electoral vote in 2016 but lost the popular vote. , could be a red flag for Democrats.

The data in battleground states isn’t much better for Biden, according to data from Decision Desk Headquarters.

Trump leads Biden by an average of 7 percentage points in Georgia, 5 percentage points in Arizona, 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and 3 percentage points in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Biden won each of these states in 2020, but by particularly narrow margins in Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia.

“No, President Biden, the polls are accurate. Americans don’t like you destroying our economy and our borders,” said Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign.

But there are also signs that Biden may be undervalued. Thousands of Democratic primary voters are voting “irresponsible” to protest Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, but pollsters say many of those voters will vote for the president once the general election begins. There is a high possibility that they will rally to the side.

Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk Headquarters, said: “It’s clear that there will be a protest vote among regular Democratic voters in the primary.Polls are a snapshot in time, so this is what they capture.” “It’s true.” “But if you look at historical voting patterns, hard-core partisans typically go home, so I expect Mr. Biden to win back many of those voters.”

Rosenberg, the Democratic strategist, said the strongest evidence that the polls on Trump are wrong is that Democrats continue to win elections, especially in the aftermath of the 2022 Supreme Court decision that ended Roe v. Wade. He argued that the reality is that

With Trump not on the 2022 ballot, Democrats bucked expectations that a “red wave” would propel Republicans to power in Congress. Democrats added seats to their Senate majority, but Republicans gained a four-seat majority in the House, although the margin was smaller than expected.

Polls in the Washington Senate race showed a close late race between Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Republican candidate Tiffany Smiley, with Murray winning by about 15 points.

In 2023, Democrats retained control of the governor’s mansion in deep red Kentucky and won a crucial Wisconsin Supreme Court race thanks to their abortion message.

Voters also voted to protect abortion rights in red states like Kansas and Ohio, leading to Democratic wins in Pennsylvania’s special election for Congress and recently defeating Rep. Tom Suozzi (New York). He also won New York’s 3rd Congressional District, which was won by the state. surpassed public opinion polls That’s a difference of about 4 percentage points.

“To me, the most important election data that’s out there is that we continue to win elections,” Rosenberg said.

“Rather than relying on polls, it’s important to match what people do when they actually vote. When people go to vote, President Trump is underperforming in the polls,” he added.

The flaw in this argument is that Trump was not on the 2022 ballot.

And when Trump does appear on the ballot, he tends to do better than polls predict.

The 2016 presidential election led to Trump’s unexpected victory, even though the polls were way off, and he lost the popular vote.

The final average of RealClearPolitics’ Michigan polls predicted then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to lead the state by 3.6 percentage points. Trump won the state by 0.3 percentage points, or less than 11,000 votes.

The RealClearPolitics poll averages Clinton outperforms Trump Trump won Wisconsin by 0.7 percentage points, compared to a 6.5 percentage point margin.

And in Pennsylvania, Mr. Clinton was projected Trump won by 2.1 percentage points, according to average polls, and Trump led the state by 0.7 percentage points.

Polls for the 2020 election were pretty close to the final results, but in some cases President Trump outperformed expectations on Election Day.

RealClearPolitics’ final average for Georgia gave Trump a 1 percentage point lead in the state, but Biden won the state by 0.3 percentage points, or about 12,000 votes.

But in other areas, even in defeat, Trump did better than polls predicted.

The Real Clear Politics On average, Trump lost office. In Wisconsin, they gained 6.7 percentage points and lost by 0.7 percentage points.polling place in michigan The average showed Biden. He won the state by 2.8 percentage points, giving him a 4.2 percentage point lead by Election Day.

Mr. Trump has long told his supporters that he only likes polls when the results are in his favor, but he will tout them in the 2024 campaign as long as they are in his favor. That’s for sure. But regardless of the outcome of the March polls, he ultimately expects both sides to have a close race in November.

“With eight months remaining, national polling confirms what we know to be true: This general election, like all modern presidential elections, is an extraordinary one,” the Biden campaign said in a memo Wednesday. It will be a close game, but we have a clear path to victory.” .