March Madness scholars may debate this, but it’s widely accepted that there are two types of NCAA Tournament Cinderellas: 1) A phenomenal first round performance; 13-16 seeds that sometimes advance to the Sweet 16 or higher, and 2) 8-12 seeds (especially seeds from mid-major conferences) that make it to the regional finals or Final Four.
This year’s field is full of choices that fit one of two descriptions. Let’s take a look at six people who have the best chance to fulfill their Cinderella potential.
1. Samford
Information sessions on “Buckyball” are scheduled to be held across the United States this week.
Those words were spoken by Sanford head coach Bucky McMillan, who is in his fourth season with the Bulldogs. McMillan has essentially spent his entire life in the Birmingham area and was hired by Sanford in 2020 after 12 successful years as head coach at Mountain Brook High School. He never spent a second as a college head coach or assistant.
This gamble paid off in a big way. McMillan has been named Southern Conference Coach of the Year in each of the past three seasons, and this year will lead the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in history and the first time since 2000.
Don’t be surprised if the story for this Sanford team doesn’t end there.
A portion of “Buckyball” looms over 40 minutes. Successes, mistakes, turnovers, everything is off. This isn’t exactly an ideal matchup for a Kansas team plagued by injuries to two of its star players.
Want more evidence to support an upset pick? Sanford shoots a ton of threes, which translates into a ton of threes. The Bulldogs are hitting 39.3 percent from beyond the arc, his eighth-best mark among Division I teams.
It may sound strange to say it out loud, but Sanford over Kansas is a real live shot.
2. Oregon
dana altman’s oregon ducks They had the week off from winning the Pac-12 Tournament and knew it was their only path to the NCAA Tournament. The last time that happened was in 2019, when Oregon State earned the 12th seed in the Big Dance and advanced to the Sweet, only to narrowly lose to eventual national champion Virginia.
History could easily repeat itself this week.
The Ducks are an 11th seed, and their first game will be a fairly friendly matchup against a South Carolina team that has been doing well all season. If they win, they could face Altman’s alma mater, Creighton, in the second round.
No one turns disappointment around like Altman. The past three times the Ducks have returned to the NCAA Tournament after missing him a year or two, he took them to his second weekend of the tournament. There has been talk in recent weeks that he needs to retire or that the school needs to go in a different direction, making this week even more likely to be the week the story is forced to take a 180-degree turn. It feels like.
3. James Madison
It’s time for the 12th seed to make a comeback.
The 12-over 5 has been America’s most popular first-round upset pick for a while now, but the 12 line hasn’t lived up to its historic hype in recent years. Over the past decade, only two 12-seed teams have advanced to the second weekend of the tournament, and in the 68-team era (since 2011), the number of No. 15 seeds advancing to the Sweet 16 has It was the same number. 12 seconds (4 seconds).
Basically, the 12 seed needs a boost. James Madison appears.
In all but one Final Four game since 2012, at least one team has been seeded seventh or lower. I think the Dukes have a real chance of being that team this year.
The southern region has huge potential for “rapid and dramatic collapse”.
Top-seeded Houston has been solid for most of this season, but is recovering from an eye-opening (in all the wrong ways) 69-41 loss. iowa in the Big 12 Tournament title game. Second-seeded Marquette played the entire Big East tournament without star point guard Tyler Kolek, who also missed the final three games of the regular season with an oblique injury. No. 3 seed Kentucky embodies the old cliché: “You can beat anyone in the tournament, and you can lose to anyone in the tournament.” And No. 4 seed Duke was so disappointed in its play in its past two games that Blue Devil players reportedly went the infamous “players-only meeting” route after rushing home from the NCAA Tournament. There is.
James Madison is 31-3. They opened the season with a true win on the road. michigan The team is participating as a 9th seed. They shoot the ball well, have guards that handle the ball well, and defend well.
If they can get past Wisconsin, they could be the team that sees the world burning around them and takes full advantage.
4. South Dakota
Listen, a 15-seed has defeated a 2-seed in three straight NCAA tournaments, so it feels wrong to make a list like this without at least featuring at least one 15-seed, right? ?
I love this Iowa State team and I love TJ Otzelberger as their head coach, but in recent weeks the Cyclones have fallen short of the statistical profile of past seeded teams that flamed out early in the NCAA Tournament. is consistent with I know they won the Big 12 Tournament title, I know there’s talk around them that they should have been the No. 5 overall seed, I’m just saying.
Additionally, in tournament history, there have been 23 No. 2 seeds that started the season unranked and entered the tournament inside the top 10. Fifteen of those 23 teams (including Marquette last season) failed to advance to the Sweet 16. This year’s team fits that description perfectly: Iowa State.
This is South Dakota State’s seventh appearance in the NCAA Tournament since 2012. This is an expected program. The Jackrabbits, like the other players on this list, shoot the ball extremely well (36.2 percent as a team with three and he ranks 50th in DI). They also enter March Madness riding an eight-game winning streak, the fifth-longest in the country.
Despite all of its success, SDSU has never won the NCAA Tournament. Everyone in the world outside of New England thought they would beat Providence two years ago, but it didn’t happen. Maybe they needed more of an element of surprise on their side.
5. Charleston
Like South Dakota State, College of Charleston isn’t as well-regarded as it was when it made the NCAA Tournament two seasons ago.
The Cougars are 27-7 and have won 12 straight games, the second-longest winning streak in the nation, but have yet to beat a team in the NCAA Tournament or a team ranked in the top 100 by KenPom. What they do have is a head coach in Pat Kelce, who is widely regarded as one of the brightest young stars in the sport, and a shaky first-round opponent in Alabama, who they upset in the first round…or He seems to be shouting that he will score 35 points in the first round. Rout.
Metrics has loved this Alabama team all season, but the Crimson Tide’s recent play in particular has made many wonder why.
Alabama has 11 losses, the most of any team seeded in the top four. They have lost four of their past six games, allowing more than 100 points in three of those games. On the contrary, he has scored over 100 points in four of the last nine games.
If Bama is playing an A or A- game, there’s not much Charleston can do about it. If Bama is playing a C or C level game, the Cougars definitely have the experience, discipline and coaching to make the most of it.
6. Drake
A 10th seed doesn’t really live up to the “Cinderella” moniker…unless it’s a team (especially a mid-major team) that makes it to the regional finals or higher. Drake could definitely be that team.
All eyes were on Indiana State last month, but the Bulldogs may be poised to be the Missouri Valley team everyone remembers this season.
They have a bonafide star in Tucker DeVries (son of coach Darian DeVries), who has been named MVC Player of the Year in each of the past two seasons. He’s talented enough to have a two-week run like Wally Szczerbiak that everyone will remember forever.
The Bulldogs are in the top 40 nationally in nearly every important offensive statistic, have a solid defense, are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and, perhaps most importantly, have a favorable draw. It seems there are.
will likely require the care of others university university It’s in the top half of the South region for them, but with that happening, Drake could be the Florida Atlantic of the year.
