aAfter 10 games in the Premier League season, Tottenham are at the top of the table, two points clear of Arsenal and Manchester City, with Liverpool adding one point to that gap. But if the VAR incident that led to Luis Diaz’s goal at Spurs had been a problem, the top three would probably have remained the same with 10 games remaining.
What exactly does this tell us? The top three are nearly even and stable all season long, and perhaps, despite the constant intrigue this season, fate is not the best in modern league football. Large fluctuations may not be tolerated so much.
If this is to become an all-time classic like 1971-72, when Derby won the title because Leeds and Liverpool failed to win in the final game, there will have to be twists and turns. Ideally, all three teams would drop points in three or four of their final 10 games. The final two months of the 2018-19 season, when City edged Liverpool by one point, were strangely lacking in drama, with both teams winning their last nine games. Ta. .
That is one of the problems with the financial stratification of the modern Premier League. When a title-winning team needs 85 or more points (often 90 or more) to become champions, there is less room for setbacks or comebacks than there was in times of high performance. Maybe being in your 70s is enough.
Both countries will have regrets. You will be wondering how City lost against Wolves, dropped four points against Chelsea and conceded two late goals at home to Crystal Palace to draw. Liverpool will be looking at draws against Luton and at home to Manchester United after dropping points unnecessarily. They had 34 shots but failed to score in the latter game. Arsenal lost to Fulham and West Ham on Christmas.
But blips are good. Victories must be hard-won. Relentless victory is not good for anyone.
The last time a three-way title race was this close at this stage of the season was in 2010, when Chelsea lost 4-2 at home to Manchester City on 27 February. With 10 games remaining, Manchester United lead by one point, with Arsenal closing in on two points behind. Arsenal were eliminated with a draw against Birmingham and defeats against Tottenham and Wigan, but Chelsea won eight of their last nine games (including, crucially, a 2-1 win at Old Trafford) and clinched the title. Obtained.
Chelsea started the final day with a one point lead over United, but given that they were at home to Wigan and United were at home to Stoke, Chelsea beat Liverpool 2-0 on the penultimate weekend. It always felt like the title was decided. Sure enough, United beat Stoke 4-0, while Chelsea beat Wigan 8-0.
There is a risk of a similar damp fixture this season, with Arsenal, Liverpool and City all playing at home on the final day against absentees – Everton, Wolves and West Ham respectively. That’s why next Sunday’s match between City and Arsenal at the Etihad is so important, even though there is still around a quarter of the season left.
All three teams still have a matchup between Tottenham and Aston Villa, but this will be the last of six meetings between the three challengers this season. City will be wary of a trip to Spurs, but that aside, this is the only serious hurdle left for them. If they can overcome this temporary deficit, they will be strong contenders for the championship. That’s why the feeling at Anfield two weeks ago was that Liverpool really needed a win to open up some clear water.
Last year, with the World Cup in the middle of the season, the mental calendar increased, so the run-in started too early, and there was a sense of inevitability in every match. Arsenal’s wins over Aston Villa and Bournemouth were treated as if they were in the home straight with a third of the season still left.
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After all, three successive draws had effectively eliminated Arsenal from the race at the time City and Arsenal were expected to play in a championship clash at the Etihad at the end of April.
This season, games begin with the title race still very strong. The only ‘big six’ team City has beaten is United. Changing this to ‘Top 6’ would simply replace the two draws with Chelsea with a surprisingly comprehensive 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa. Although City are unbeaten in 22 games in all competitions (19 of which have been wins), they remain vulnerable and were reinforced in the second half at Anfield. Meanwhile, Arsenal have defeated City twice this season, once on penalties in the Community Shield in August and 1-0 in a league match in October.
Arsenal were eliminated from the FA Cup in January and will go into this game without playing for 19 days. In a way, the break came at exactly the wrong time for them after winning eight consecutive league games and reaching the last eight of the Champions League. As a frenetic second half against Brentford showed, they had to scrap to win. The match seemed to be under control, but for better or for worse, it remains a very emotional team. It is important to maintain morale and confidence.
But it was the final holiday (albeit unaffected by international duty) that put an end to the Christmas slump and started the current surge in form. If he has time to perfect even one new set-piece routine, it could be crucial.
Arsenal will probably face the toughest of the three contenders, with games against Brighton, Wolves, Tottenham and United coming up. Can we believe that even after their run of form through February, they won’t fall into the funk that cost them against Fulham and West Ham?
But they also have the chance to directly damage their rivals, something Liverpool have struggled to do. If they win on Sunday at a ground they haven’t won in nine years, the wave of euphoria could be enough to take them home.
