James Madison vs. Duke prediction: March Madness picks, odds

Duke University handled itself well in the first round game against the University of Vermont, but things weren’t looking great for the Blue Devils.

Despite a great start to the game, the Devils finished with just 64 points for a .92 PPP.

The University of Vermont cut the lead to six points midway through the second half, but the Catamounts were unable to attack the wide flank of the covered bridge midway through.

So I would be shocked if Duke turns around and overwhelms James Madison, who devastated Wisconsin in the first round.

The Dukes match up well with Duke and the spread is too high.

James Madison vs. Duke Odds

(Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook)

James Madison vs. Duke Prediction

(5:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

Duke’s entire offense is built around Kyle Filipowski in the screen-and-roll game.

Vermont’s Ireli Ayo Farrier essentially shut down Filipovski, but dished out some key assists from short rolls, and Duke hit a big three late in its first-round win.

However, the Catamounts’ ball screen coverage defense is sketchy, so it was easy to beat them in those sets.

It won’t be that easy against James Madison.

The Dukes rank in the top 10 nationally in allowable PPP for pick-and-roll ball handlers (.61) and in the top 80 in allowable PPP for roll men (.94).

Duke should have a hard time starting a screen-heavy offense against TJ Bickerstaff and Julian Wooden (both have a roll man PPP success rate of .43, 92nd percentile).

On the other side of the court, James Madison runs a spread pick-and-roll offense, leveraging the elite and versatile playmaking of Edwards and Bickerstaff to score or hit rim-running cutters. .

Duke’s ball screen coverage metrics are good, but not elite. And I think the backdoor cutters will crush the Devils.

James Madison ranks in the top 20 in the nation in points allowed per game (11), while Duke ranks below 250 in PPP allowed (1.22).

The University of Vermont created a lot of easy offense using cutters in the first round games, scoring 15 points (PPP 1.36) out of 11 cuts.

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James Madison is a cut-based offense with much better athleticism, but I don’t think Duke’s rotation can keep up.

After all, while James Madison was impressive against Wisconsin on Friday, Duke fell short against Vermont.

Given the Dukes’ solid schematic advantage over the Dukes, I’m ready to back James Madison as a two-possession dog in the second round.

James Madison vs. Duke Pick

James Madison +7.5 | Played to +6