Foreign policy and defense experts told the Daily Caller that more than six months into Israel, Israel is facing a series of complications on the ground, including how exactly the conflict will end and what will happen next. The News Foundation is aiming for an early end to the war with Hamas while overcoming the current problems.
Israel is in the late stages of a military conflict with the terrorist organization Hamas, which attacked Israel on October 7, killing more than 1,200 civilians and kidnapping hundreds. Although Israeli leaders expect the war to end within months, challenges remain due to military operations on the ground in Gaza, pressure from the international community, and the question of who will govern the area once the conflict ends. There is. (Related article: Prime Minister Netanyahu defies Biden, gives green light to attack on Hamas stronghold)
A key element to winning the war for Israel is the southernmost densely populated urban area of Gaza, where the last of the remaining Hamas battalions remain, despite Western powers and the Biden administration warning Israel not to act. An imminent ground attack on Rafah, the stronghold of So. The Israeli leadership has made it perfectly clear that it intends to enter Gaza, despite the Biden administration’s other demands.
At the same time, the international community is struggling to agree on who should run war-torn Gaza once the war ends: the Palestinians, the Israelis, or a coalition of other Middle Eastern countries.
“That remains to be seen,” Simone Ledeen, a senior fellow at the Straus Center for International Security Law and a former Department of Defense (DOD) official, told DCNF.
5/ Israeli forces continued operations in and around Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on March 21. Israeli forces have detained several high-ranking Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad officials at al-Shifa hospital.
Israeli military begins new area clearing operation… pic.twitter.com/2RjkjccJzB
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 22, 2024
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has already seized Control Counterattacks have been launched in parts of northern and central Gaza since it began on October 7, but control gaps remain in these areas, according to the Institute for War and Serious Threats. That’s what it means. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week that Israeli military combat in Gaza should be the most appropriate. Wrapped In “probably six weeks, maybe four weeks” it destroyed roughly three-quarters of the Hamas battalions in the region.
Experts who spoke to the DCNF agreed to a schedule of four to six weeks, or said three to six months was more realistic, depending on when the IDF begins its ground offensive in Rafah.
“It all depends on when they start. Israel was very careful and thorough in its response to the October 7 Hamas attack,” Ledeen told DCNF. “I don’t think Rafa will change.”
Experts told the DCNF that from an operational standpoint, the IDF has the necessary technology and resources to defeat the remaining Hamas battalion in Rafah. The IDF ranks as her 17th strongest military in the world, defeating several rivals in the West. according to In the 2024 World Firepower Index.
“[Israel has] This is a very capable and motivated fighting force,” Ledeen told DCNF. “We will be studying this war both strategically and tactically for years to come. Israel is writing the book on the evolution of modern urban warfare.”
However, Hamas is included in approximately 1.4 groups. a million Palestinians in Rafah have little ability to flee elsewhere as Egypt blockades the north border To the refugees coming in. Experts told the DCNF that the IDF must balance civilian security while conducting military operations. (Related: ‘When Will They Learn?’: Biden Administration Greenlights $10 Billion Access to Iran: Report)
“During the Gaza operation, people had room to move south, but now they don’t have that room,” Michael Dimino, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities and a former CIA official, told DCNF. Told. “That would create an even more complex urban warfare environment than the Israelis have had to deal with before.”
Launching a ground attack with Rafa presents another challenge. That could strain diplomatic relations between the United States and Israel, experts told DCNF. The Biden administration has repeatedly pressed Israel to scale back its military operations in Gaza. Vote Citing humanitarian concerns over Friday’s UN resolution calling for a temporary “ceasefire”, it warned that launching an attack on Rafah would cross a “red line that should not be crossed”.
TOP SHOT – Participants participate in a raid coordination exercise near Moshav Khidmat Tzvi in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on December 7, 2023, as cross-border tensions continue as fighting with Hamas militants continues in southern Gaza. Members of the Israeli Army’s 6th Infantry Brigade strip. (Photo credit: JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)
Israel has said it has plans to ensure the safety of civilians during operations, but as of Wednesday the Biden administration Said I haven’t seen the plan yet. Experts told DCNF that if Israel were to enter Rafah, the Biden administration could consider several retaliatory options.
“I think a major factor will be a delay or halt in the deployment of military aid. We may see a reduction in intelligence sharing. If the Biden administration does these things. I think both are self-inflicted wounds,” Gabriel Noronha, executive director of Polaris National Security and a former State Department official, told DCNF. “It’s important to remember that the sooner Israel can end this war, the better for everyone involved. And when it comes to information sharing, we are withholding information that will help ensure Israel’s safety.” It’s kind of ridiculous to do that…so it would be shameful to do either of those things.”
“Surprisingly, the US has already been slow to implement some of the military aid it has promised to Israel. They also supported a UN resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire,” Redeen said. “Anything more will backfire domestically and internationally in this election year, as we look to the United States to threaten to turn its back on yet another close friend and ally.” .”
The Biden administration is also currently implementing plans to deliver aid to Gaza by sea through the Mediterranean Sea.
The idea is to deploy naval vessels off the coast of Gaza, build rafts loaded with aid, and float them to artificial docks on the Gaza coast, without stationing U.S. troops on the ground. Nevertheless, experts previously told the DCNF that the plan was rushed and half-baked and could put U.S. forces at risk.
“This proposal is unconscionable,” American freedom groups said. letter It was submitted to Congress last week, asking lawmakers to cut funding to ports. “This plan would leave the U.S. military vulnerable to attacks by Hamas and other terrorist groups aimed at killing Americans. This is against our national interest.”
While military operations and aid operations continue, Israel is also negotiating with Hamas through intermediaries in the United States, Egypt, and Qatar to secure the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In the aftermath of the October 7 attack, Hamas initially held more than 200 hostages, some of whom were freed, freed, or died in captivity.
What will happen to Gaza once the war ends is another question that no one in the international community fully answers. Immediately after the war, a series of new challenges will emerge in Gaza, including deradicalizing the Palestinian population and preventing Hamas from reigniting. Experts told DCNF that the IDF would likely have to remain in the area, at least temporarily. (Related: Iran didn’t know Hamas was planning to attack Israel on October 7, US intelligence says)
TOP SHOT – Palestinian members of the Hamas movement’s armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, stand in Gaza City on January 31, 2016, to pay tribute to fellow militants who died after a tunnel collapse in the Gaza Strip. Participate in the meeting. . (Photo by MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images)
“This is where things start to get difficult right away, because there will also have to be some cleansing in northern Gaza, where Israelis have migrated for many years. There are still Hamas cells in the north,” Dimino said. told DCNF. “What I have to say is that Hamas still has some freedom of movement. This leads to the problem of tunnels. This really represents the nature of urban battlefields.”
“The deradicalization part will take years,” Noronha told DCNF. “I don’t think Israel will leave anytime soon.”
In the long term, a new Palestinian Authority could begin governing the region. The proposal was supported by the Biden administration but rejected by the Israeli government. It could also take the form of Israeli security forces or a coalition of neighboring Arab states, which could come to its aid as long as Israel guarantees certain provisions.
“I think the hope from an Israeli perspective is that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and maybe Egypt will be involved to some degree as well. And the Palestinians will trust him,” Noronha said. “I think it’s going to require some level of commitment by Israel, whether it’s Congress on a path to a Palestinian state, or whether it’s about greater or some level of autonomy and governance. If Israel ends its union. will need it.”
“I hope that some of the Gulf states will eventually play an important role,” Ledeen told DCNF, adding, “They have been successful in deradicalizing, and the Gazans and, indeed, We can offer a different, more peaceful and beneficial future for all Palestinians.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Friday and warned against the Rafakh invasion, saying the next stage of the war requires a “coherent plan” and that the current path leaves Israel “at a standstill.” “I’ll put it away,” he warned. In Gaza.” according to To Axios. Prime Minister Netanyahu said he hoped Israel would have the Biden administration’s “support” in future stages of the war. “But if necessary, we will do it ourselves.” according to In the Washington Post.
“The next few weeks are going to be very interesting for U.S.-Israel relations,” Dimino told DCNF. “And I think everyone here is kind of waiting with bated breath.”
The Israel Defense Forces and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.
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