After ‘severe’ geomagnetic storm, only some may see aurora Monday: forecasts

(NEXSTAR) — A “severe” geomagnetic storm recorded over the weekend was strong enough to send the aurora borealis as far south as Alabama, but that may not be the case Monday night.

On Saturday, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center announced: magnetic storm clock through Monday as coronal mass ejections and solar flares enter orbits that impact Earth. At the time, the bureau announced that the strength of the geomagnetic storm could reach G2 “moderate” and G3 “strong.” The next day, SWPC warned that the storm had reached “severe” G4 status.

While that may sound serious, SWPC notes there is no need for the public to be alarmed.But there were hopes the storm might bring aurora borealis to the U.S.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is an explosion of plasma and magnetic material from the Sun. If it shoots out into space in the right direction, those CMEs could collide with our magnetic field and send particles to the North and South Pole, NASA explain. When these particles interact with oxygen and nitrogen, auroras can occur.

This interaction is known as a magnetic storm, and its strength affects how far south the aurora can be seen.

SWPC is 5 step scale It measures the strength of magnetic storms in the same way that forecasters use tornado and hurricane scales. The lowest are G1, or small storms, where there is a chance of seeing the aurora in the northern United States (it is worth noting that Alaska and much of Canada have at least a small chance of seeing the aurora) To do). A G4 storm recorded over the weekend could bring the aurora borealis as far south as Northern California to Alabama.

Unfortunately for the United States, the geomagnetic storm peaked during the day on Sunday, so there was no chance to see the aurora borealis.

It also appears that only a small number of people in the Lower 48 will have a chance to see the Northern Lights on Monday night, albeit a small number.

SWPC’s aurora forecast for Monday night is as follows: Areas covered in red are most likely to see the Northern Lights, while areas covered in green are less likely. Dancing celestial lights could be seen in many parts of Alaska and Canada.

As for the rest of North America, only the northern parts of a few states — Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota and Michigan — seem unlikely to be able to put on a hot show on Monday night. Other areas north of the red line of sight may see the aurora glow on the northern horizon: northern Wyoming, South Dakota, northern Iowa, Wisconsin, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. state.

But aurora forecasts produced by the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute show slightly better odds for twinkling auroras in the Lower Forty-Eight.

As of Monday morning, The institute predicts Aurora activity is high, with “very active aurora displays when weather permits” as far south as Oregon, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. It is pointed out that this will be the case. This visibility is expected to extend from northern California to Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee and North Carolina.

Its aurora monitor uses data from NOAA.However, it is often based on long-term projections, the Associated Press previously reported. report.

The forecast also does not take into account cloud cover or local weather conditions. minnesota For example, rain (or snow) is expected in Wisconsin starting Monday and overnight, greatly limiting chances to see the aurora borealis.

According to NOAA, we approaching the peak Solar Cycle 25, an 11-year period in which the sun reverses its north and south poles. During this period, various space weather phenomena may occur that can bring magnetic storms and aurora borealis to us on Earth.

It can be difficult to know exactly when Americans will have a chance to see the Northern Lights, but NOAA suggests the following: Weather forecast for the day and the next day For the possibility of observing the aurora.