Lisa Erickson, senior vice president at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, analyzes stock trends, the job market and potential “signs of further deterioration.”
March’s jobs report is expected to show that the U.S. labor market again defies expectations of a sharp slowdown, even as it battles rising interest rates and chronic inflation.
The high-stakes march of the Ministry of Labor salary reportThe report, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, shows employment rose by 200,000 last month and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9%, according to the median estimate of LSEG economists. It is expected that
it is, 275,000 profit February Over the past 12 months, an average monthly profit of 270,000 was recorded.
Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY, said: “The March employment report shows that labor market conditions are moderating, with private sector employment falling below the 200,000 mark and wage growth slowing. “It will show that it is softening.” “Salaries for the past two months are likely to be revised downward, in line with the recent pattern of downward revisions.”
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More than 75 employers accepted resumes and spoke with prospective employees at a career fair held in Lake Forest, California, on February 21st. (Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via / Getty Images)
of federal reserve The report will be closely watched for evidence that the labor market is finally softening after months of surprisingly strong job growth as policymakers seek to ensure progress in curbing inflation does not stall. There is. Officials have suggested that rapid wage growth, a product of a strong labor market, contributed to the inflation crisis that has ravaged the wallets of millions of Americans over the past few years.
US wages are falling at an ‘alarming’ pace, they actually say
Slower job growth and further deceleration in wage growth could be welcome signs for the U.S. central bank, which has signaled plans to cut interest rates this year once inflation is firmly under control.
Average hourly wages, a key indicator of inflation, are expected to increase by 0.3% in the month and 4.1% from the same period last year.
Bank of America said in an analyst note this week that if the forecast is correct, it “should reduce concerns about a re-acceleration of the economy and the risk that the Fed will not be able to ease policy before the end of the year.” “Expectations for a cooling labor market should rise again, but there are no signs of significant weakness in the labor market.”
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The labor market has remained historically tight over the past year, contrary to economists’ predictions of an economic slowdown. Economists say the economy is starting to slow from last year’s breakneck pace, but is still far from breaking out.
In a separate report released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Pace of layoffs Announcements by U.S. employers accelerated in March.
| ticker | safety | last | change | change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Me: DJI | Dow Jones Average | 39268.9 | +141.76 | +0.36% |
| I:Comp | Nasdaq Composite Index | 16447.473826 | +170.02 | +1.04% |
| SP500 | S&P500 | 5248.23 | +36.74 | +0.70% |
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According to the company’s survey results, companies planned to cut 90,309 jobs in March, an increase of 7% from the previous month and 0.7% from the same period last year.
This is the highest monthly layoff total since January 2023.
Data shows the labor market is easing despite increasing headwinds.
“Looking ahead, we expect labor market conditions to soften due to a slowdown in hiring, strategic resizing decisions, and continued moderate nominal wage growth,” Boussour said. “We expect job growth to be below trend throughout the year and the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2% by the end of the year,” he said.
