Election data shows Democratic voter registration has declined in three key battleground states since the end of 2020 and ahead of the November rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
In Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, closest Overall, Democratic voter registration is now lower in the last presidential election than it was at the end of 2020, according to the latest state records. Democrats still lead Republicans in party registration, but the gap in these states is much smaller than before. (Related: Voters are increasingly abandoning Democrats and supporting Republicans in key battleground states)
Pennsylvania has lost 336,269 registered Democrats since November 3, 2020. according to to state election data.Democratic Party the current The advantage over Republicans in voter registration is less than 400,000 people, compared to a previous Republican lead of 685,818 people.
In North Carolina, 212,084 Democratic voters left the party from late December 2020 to early April 2024, according to state election data. show. Now, gap There are just 170,943 voters between the state Democratic Party and the Republican Party, compared to a former party difference of 373,622.
Since December 2020, the Nevada Democratic Party has lost 27,757 registered voters. according to to state election data.party now hold Republicans hold a 55,116-vote lead in the battleground state, compared to 96,875 votes for Democrats in 2020.
Total number of voters is less than 200,000 decided Presidential elections in these three battleground states were held last cycle. Biden won Nevada and Pennsylvania by 2.4 points and 1.2 points, respectively, and Trump won North Carolina by 1.3 points.
“The change in party registration reflects what we’re seeing in the polling numbers in battleground states,” said John McHenry, a Republican polling analyst and vice president. , but the election race remains close.” North Star Opinion Research, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Trump currently leads Biden by 3.2 points. nevada and 4.6 points north carolina, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP) average.The only battleground state where Biden is leading is pennsylvaniawhere he holds a margin of just 0.1 points.
GREEN BAY, WI – APRIL 2: Former President Donald Trump arrives to attend a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin on April 2, 2024. At the rally, Trump spoke next to an empty podium and challenged President Joe Biden to debate. The Wisconsin primary election will be held today. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
“Voters have moved away from the Democratic Party, but they haven’t completely shifted to the Republican Party yet,” McHenry said.
Republicans have added about 14,000 voters in Nevada since the end of 2020, while Republican registration has declined in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to state data.
All three states saw an increase in independent voter counts, according to the data. Nevada saw an increase of 295,129 unaffiliated voters. The number of independent voters in North Carolina increased by 288,671. Pennsylvania added 5,300 “independent” and “other” voters.
“In most of these states, Democratic registrants are decreasing while Republican registrants are not increasing,” Ron Forcheux, president of the nonpartisan polling firm Clarus Research Group, told DCNF. Ta. “That means independent voters will be more important.”
Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist and campaign veteran, told DCNF that he “couldn’t read too much into” the data showing Democratic voter registration declines in these key states. Ta.
“But certainly Mr. Biden has serious problems among many groups, and that’s clear from these results,” Jennings added. “The key, of course, is that once people are registered, we have to remove them.”
Pew Research Center analysis The report released Tuesday found the country is about evenly divided between the two parties, with 49% supporting or leaning toward Democrats and 48% saying the same about Republicans. ing. According to the report, Democrats appear to have lost the advantage they gained from 2017 to 2021.
Neither the Biden nor Trump campaigns immediately responded to DCNF’s requests for comment.
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