Denying Cold War II, fearing World War III 

Western leaders are extremely negative We need to recognize the obvious. We are already embroiled in a new Cold War. More precisely, the authoritarian regimes of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, along with their proxies and dependent partners, are waging a second Cold War against the West.

They have been doing so against the United States and its allies as individual nations and groups for decades, if not decades, but in recent years, authoritarian regimes have been collaborating to weaken their common enemy, the United States. It has become more open. -led rules-based international order.

Weeks before President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, his second in six years, he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.They announced relations between Russia and China “Unlimited Strategic Partnership” and each supported the other’s claims to Ukraine and Taiwan. Since then, China has done everything in its power to support Russia’s war economy and military industrial base. unprecedented Large quantities of Russian oil transferred deadly Dual-use technology and Russian support diplomatically At an international forum. Mr. Xi will one day call for a promise of mutual support from Mr. Putin when taking action against Taiwan.

Iran and North Korea too stepped up Weapons and technology exchanges with Russia directly enhance Russia’s ability to bring death and destruction to Ukraine. Iran’s proxy Hamas gave President Putin his birthday present on October 7th. brutal attack On Israel, it distracted Western governments and further confused and delayed Congressional action on Ukraine aid funding for months.

While Western governments deny that a new Cold War is already upon us, miscalculation, mishap or planning could lead to a shootout if conflict with an aggressive adversary continues to escalate. I am concerned.

President Biden has repeatedly worried about what will happen if he simply provides Ukraine with the arms and support it urgently needs to defeat Russian aggression. “World War III”. He is pursuing a stalemate strategy that would prevent further loss of Ukrainian territory while not forcing Russia out of the 20 percent of its neighbor’s territory that it already occupies.

Former President Trump has been more willing to side with Russian revivalism, saying, “We will do that.” “End the war in Ukraine within 24 hours” It has threatened to cut off U.S. and Western aid altogether in order to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to cede control of parts of his country to Russia.

Both approaches are examples of other aggressive powers extorting territorial interests from neighboring states in the hope that they will not have to surrender them in post-conflict negotiations. Either one invites “Salami tactics” Nazi Germany successfully led to World War II. In imitation of Adolf Hitler, President Putin claimed or evoked linguistic or cultural ties and invaded parts of Georgia in 2008, Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, and further Ukrainian territory in 2022.

Biden’s slow or complete denial of many of the weapons systems Ukraine needs to defeat Russia means Putin will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or other Western countries, perhaps Poland or the Baltic states. This stems from concerns that attacking the United States could escalate the invasion. It would draw the United States into a broader conflict.

Similarly, in the Middle East, Biden’s assertion that “America has Israel on its side” At times, it may sound like America is holding Israel back.This was certainly the case after the war with Iran. Massive missile and drone attacks A direct attack on Israel could have killed hundreds, if not thousands, of Israelis and foreigners and destroyed strategic infrastructure and historical sites.

Thanks to Israel’s superior air defense systems and significant American, allied, and Arab support, more than 90 percent of the weapons coming from Iran were destroyed. The Biden administration called on Israel: “Seize victory” And refrain from retaliating to avoid climbing further up the escalation ladder. Israel bowed to pressure and did very little. surgical, signal attack At an Iranian military facility not far from one of the nuclear facilities. However, the threat from Iran and its proxies remains. Unless the mullahs in Tehran miraculously develop glands of peaceful tolerance, Washington and the Western world will have no choice but to support the Iranian people’s desire to change the fanatical clerical regime and return to normal relations with the world. we must join forces.

Similarly, if the West wants to avoid the kind of conflagration it suffered in World War II (an even worse one, this time with nuclear weapons), the Cold War-era business of seeking peaceful regime change in enemy governments have to go back to. That means relying primarily on information warfare to appeal to oppressed peoples seeking moral and political support for liberation from tyranny.

As history has repeatedly shown, regimes that oppress their people quickly threaten neighboring countries and become a global problem as well. A vigorous Cold War is far preferable to a gunfight, but if dynamic action is the only option, it must be pursued with the aim of victory, not stalemate.

Joseph Bosco served as the Secretary of Defense’s Director of China Affairs from 2005 to 2006 and Director of the Asia-Pacific Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief from 2009 to 2010. He is an adjunct fellow at the Institute for Korean American Studies and a member of the Korean American Institute. Advisory Board of the Global Taiwan Institute. Follow him on X @boscojoseph.