Labor was celebrating on Friday a series of election results that show it is on course for victory in the next general election.
But behind the euphoria of victories in places such as Blackpool, Hartlepool and Thurrock lie fears about the party’s performance in urban areas, with campaigners saying the party has gained ground in both London and Birmingham. It warns you that you are losing it.
By Friday afternoon, the party had won the Blackpool South by-election in the third biggest swing in post-war history, winning more than 140 seats. But party insiders say they are not confident of winning the narrow West Midlands mayoral race, and that Conservative London mayoral candidate Susan Hall could defeat Sadiq Khan in an unexpectedly close race. Stated.
Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said: “Labour’s strategy has been to do better in the parts of the country that it has lost since 2016: breakaway areas, rural expansion, Tory areas. “The expansion of white areas, the expansion of white areas,” he said. They perform well overall in all these areas. ”
But he added: “They’re also seeing problems on the left side, with a big drop in support in Muslim-majority areas and a bit of a setback in progressive and student-majority areas. It is a costly progress.”
Labor leader Keir Starmer said Friday’s results showed the wisdom of pursuing a strategy of chasing votes in Leave-voting areas of the country where voters abandoned their Leave vote in 2019.
The party won the Blackpool South by-election with a 26% turnout, the third highest in the post-war period, and also took control of Thurrock, Hartlepool and Rushmoor councils.Ann Analysis by Sky News The regions that voted most strongly for Brexit showed the strongest leaning towards Labor.
The success in Hartlepool was particularly useful for the Labor leader, given that he almost resigned after the party’s defeat in a by-election shortly after taking over. A Labor Party spokesperson said: “Our victory here shows the party is on track to win a general election and firmly back in the service of working people.”
Party insiders were also delighted with the victory of candidate David Scaith in the York and North Yorkshire mayoral race, which includes Rishi Sunak’s constituency.
By Friday afternoon, the BBC was predicting that if this result were repeated in a national election, Labor would win around 34% of the vote, compared to 25% for the Conservatives.
Mr Starmer’s campaign managers are hoping to target voters on the country’s fringes, even if it means losing support in urban areas where the party has traditionally done well. They claim they can win more seats than their vote share suggests.
The downside to that strategy became clearer as Friday progressed, with officials gloomy over the West Midlands and nervous about Mr Khan winning a third term in London.
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Officials said much of the loss of support in urban areas was due to anger among Muslim and progressive voters over Mr Starmer’s stance on Gaza.
One London Labor Party official said: [which predicted a 20-point lead for Khan] I was completely wrong, but this is going to be much closer than expected. ”
One person from Birmingham said: “I found it very difficult in Birmingham. [Akhmed Yakoob, an independent candidate] The impact on Gaza may be greater than initially estimated, as some districts in the city center have seen an increase of more than 50%. ”
The issue continues to be a problem for Mr Starmer, with Labor unexpectedly losing control of Oldham Parliament on Friday morning, showing it had lost a number of parliamentary seats to pro-Palestinian independent candidates. . Later that day, the party lost the deputy leadership position on Manchester City Council to a candidate from George Galloway’s British Labor Party.
Labor campaigners in London said Gaza was driving inner-city voters away from the party, while the dispute over clean air ultra-low emission zones was hurting suburban boroughs.
A shock victory for the Conservatives in London would dominate the political agenda for days, reigniting questions about Labour’s environmental policies and angering the party’s left. But experts say it will not undermine the party’s overall ambitions to win this year’s general election.
“Losing London would be devastating, but most of the country will be fine and it won’t affect the general election,” said one Labor leader.
