President Joe Biden’s seemingly impenetrable “blue wall” appears to be crumbling in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s biggest political resurgence in history.
The “blue wall” represents three battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden needs to win these states to prevent President Trump from winning re-election.
President Trump is gaining ground in the Sunbelt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, making these states vital to Biden.In these four states, President Trump lead The FiveThirtyEight polling average gave Biden between 3 and 6 points in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
“There is a clear divide between Blue Wall states that are close to voting day and Sunbelt states that are not.” I have written stephen shepherd politikoSenior Campaigns and Elections Editor and Chief Polling Analyst.
Tuesday’s Emerson Poll showed Trump holding narrow leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan for the first time in 2024. Polls in battleground states so far have shown Trump with a lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with only Michigan leaning toward Biden.
Seven states will decide the president: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, Doug Sosnick, a longtime Democratic adviser, wrote in an article. new york times. If Mr. Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Mr. Biden is unlikely to win 270 electoral votes.
US President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at Hovertech International in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on October 26, 2020. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
Essentially, if Biden wins all the Blue Wall states, he will win re-election without winning any of the Sun Belt states. “But Biden cannot afford to lose any of the Blue Wall states if he loses all four competitive Sun Belt states,” Shepherd wrote Wednesday. “And given the size of Michigan (15 electors) and Pennsylvania (19 electors), even if they manage to hold on to Arizona and Nevada, Biden will be able to cobble together an electoral majority without them. It’s difficult.”
Sosnik outlined several reasons why he believes Biden faces a tougher road to re-election than Trump.
- Michigan is not as favorable to Biden as it was in the last Democratic election.
- A cross-section coalition (young voters, black voters, Hispanic voters) appears to be abandoning Biden, who needs support in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.
“Mr. Biden’s declining popularity in Sunbelt states is the main reason why Trump has an advantage at the moment. He is particularly struggling with young and nonwhite voters,” Sosnik said. I wrote about it in the article. time:
according to 2020 exit poll, Biden won 65% of Latino voters, who make up about one-fifth of the electorate in Arizona and Nevada. Biden won 87% of black voters, 29% of the Georgia vote and 23% of the North Carolina vote. Biden also won 60% of voters aged 18 to 29. Now, let’s look at this year: A New York Times/Siena College poll released last weekend showed Biden’s support by 18 points among black voters, 15 points among Latino voters, and 14 points among Latino voters. was shown to have decreased. with young voters across the country.
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If Biden and Trump maintain their leads in the currently most favorable states, the outcome of the election will be between Michigan and Arizona, two Sun Belt states where abortion is very likely to be on the ballot. It could depend on whether we win or not. Nevada.
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Wendell Husebo is a political reporter for Breitbart News and a former Republican war room analyst.he is the author of politics of slave morality.Follow Wendell “X” @WendellHusebø or society of truth @WendellHusebo.
