Aurora viewers should keep an eye on the skies this weekend as solar flares from the sun rush toward Earth.
Because of several solar flares that overlapped, NOAA raised the geomagnetic solar storm watch from Level 3 (“Moderate”) to Level 4 (“Severe”). It could decorate northern skies with brilliant auroras, but it could also cause GPS problems, disrupt satellite communications and cause high-frequency radio blackouts.
NOAA says of the watch, “A watch of this caliber is extremely rare.” “This is a rare occurrence.”
This is the first “severe” geomagnetic storm watch issued since January 2005.
combination of sunspots
Two giant sunspots recently merged, ejecting at least two X-class (largest) and several M-class (second largest) solar flares. According to NOAA, explosive accelerations of charged, superheated plasma, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), accelerate and expand through space.
The diameter of the new sunspot is 16 times that of Earth.
Another sunspot also emitted a strong CME this week and remains active. According to NOAA, most of the five CMEs will crash into Earth in an instant sometime between Friday and Sunday at noon.
“These two sunspot groups are magnetically complex and much larger than Earth. Together they are responsible for frequent M-class flares (mild to moderate),” the Space Weather Prediction Center said. states. “RGN 3664 (the combined sunspot region) continues to grow, becoming more magnetically complex and evolving into a larger threat with increased risk of solar flares.”
How flares cause magnetic storms
“A flare is when the sun gets brighter and you see radiation, but it’s like a muzzle flash,” Peter Becker, a professor at George Mason University, explained in a previous interview. “And the cannon fire is a coronal mass ejection (CME), which means you see the flash, but then ejections of coronal mass can occur in random directions in space, but when do they actually come to Earth? And you have about 18 hours, maybe 24 hours, of warning before those particles actually reach the Earth and start disrupting the Earth’s magnetic field.”
NOAA warns that widespread high-frequency radio communications could be disrupted for several hours. Geomagnetic storms can also cause widespread voltage anomalies in power systems, cause false alarms for security equipment, resist low-orbit satellites and prevent them from orienting, and cause ranging errors and loss of lock for GPS systems. may cause.
Forecast: Will clouds prevent you from seeing the Northern Lights?
Current forecasts indicate the storm could hit the Earth across North America late Friday into Saturday morning.
Skies are expected to be clear across most of the northern United States, but the Midwest and Northwest will see less than 10% cloud cover, according to the FOX Prediction Center. However, clouds will spread over the Tohoku region.
Forecasters estimate that these conditions occur for about 60 days during every 11-year solar cycle.
Since the current solar cycle began in December 2019, scientists have observed only three severe geomagnetic storms, according to NOAA.
“The last severe geomagnetic storm (observed) was on March 23, 2024, and the last extreme geomagnetic storm was the Halloween storm in October 2003,” SWPC said. “That G5 (extreme storm) caused power outages in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa.”
X-class solar flares are the largest explosions in the solar system. According to NASA, the largest X-class flare could produce as much energy as 1 billion atomic bombs. M-class flares are the second most powerful and can cause small radiation storms that could harm astronauts.
Solar cycle reaches its peak, causing more solar storms
Tree rings and ice cores are evidence of much larger solar superstorms in the past.
In 1859, the Great Carrington event, generally considered the largest solar storm in recent Earth history, blanketed nearly the entire Earth in auroras. About 14,000 years ago, a solar flare, perhaps hundreds of times more powerful than the Carrington flare, impacted Earth.
NOAA predicts that the current 11-year solar cycle will peak sometime in 2024 or early 2025, and solar activity could remain high for months and even years. is said to be high.
