Tyler Megill will return from the Mets’ disabled list in Monday’s series opener against the Guardians.
Megill developed two new pitches this offseason and was thought to have the potential to become a surprisingly effective pitcher.
Megill had some strong performances in spring training and was coming off a solid season opener before his injury.
Megill’s average ERA this season was expected to be close to 4.50.
Given the lack of a sample of his new weapon at the major league level, it’s pretty hard to predict how he’ll perform.
In Megill’s final rehab start, he pitched four no-hitter innings, with seven strikeouts and a total of 62 pitches.
Ben Lively will start for the Guardians.
He posted a 3.06 ERA in 32¹/₃ innings, topping a 4.21 xERA and 4.46 xFIP. His Stuff+ rating of just 77 is actually worse than his mark in 2023, when he posted a 5.38 ERA.
This season, opponents have hit 58 percent of Lively’s fastballs, which is the fifth-highest mark among pitchers who have pitched 16 or more innings.
The Mets have a wRC+ of 101 against right-handed pitchers this season, but the Guardians only have a wRC+ of 98 against right-handed pitchers.
The Guardians posted a RISP .295, the second-highest batting average in the league. However, if clutch AB dominance regresses to league average, the overall offensive process will look middling. His .372 xSLG rating ranks him second from bottom in baseball, and his .302 xwOBA ranks among the four worst.
A variety of outcomes are expected in this matchup surrounding Megill, who has returned from the IL.
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However, he could prove to be the better of these two starting pitchers this season, and the Mets have quietly become the more effective of these two offensive linemen against right-handed pitchers. Met.
Bet on the Mets pulling off a surprise win in the first five innings before Megill returns.
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