You see, I’ve publicly stated many times in the past that I’m better off waiting until Memorial Day to really pay attention to the baseball standings, and I’ve certainly been paying a lot of attention to them lately. But there’s a ton of interesting stuff going on here: the Yankees are apparently back on track, the Astros are in a quagmire right now, the Royals seem really good, and the Dodgers are still the Dodgers.
That being said, the NL East is extremely interesting right now, and not just because it’s particularly deep. The Marlins may have already waved the white flag, but the Nationals are still a few years away and the Mets continue to hold whatever the opposite of a horseshoe in their back pocket. This already leaves us with two teams that everyone expected to compete for the division title: the Atlanta Braves and the Atlanta Braves. Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have already dealt with their fair share of (relatively) adversity, are now comfortably over .500, and appear to be looking toward October once again.
However, with the Phillies’ explosive momentum this season, the Braves are likely to be forced into a tough battle for the division title. If you’re going to be compared to the 2001 Mariners (regular season only), you’re doing something great, and the Phillies did just that. Philadelphia has 36 wins and 14 losses. great start It’s the best start in franchise history and also the best start in a 50-game stretch since the aforementioned Mariners embarked on their journey to win a million baseball games in 2001. The Braves aren’t even off to a bad start, but Philadelphia is already well on its way to widening the gap on Atlanta.
There’s a lot of debate about what’s gotten the Phillies off to such a historically strong start, but it certainly helps that the team’s lineup is already churning like it’s October, not waiting until the postseason. Heading into the May 23 game, the Phillies were hitting .258/.337/.416 as a team with a .332 wOBA and an overall wRC+ of 115. That’s clearly a top-five offense in all of baseball, but we’ve seen how they can get through three seasons with their bats. Bryce Harper is hitting as well as we’d hoped, but they’re also getting big contributions from Alec Bohm (who is in line with Harper in terms of wRC+) and Bryson Stott. They’ve made a habit of getting the crowd excited at Citizens Bank Park, and they’re a big part of what makes them stand out. other stadiums It just so happens that you feel their wrath.
That being said, the spotlight is firmly on Philadelphia’s pitching staff. They currently own a league-best FIP-82 (3.31 FIP) while posting a 79 ERA (3.19 ERA) as a unit. The Phillies have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball right now. And I’m not just talking about the starters and relief pitchers that carry the unit, it’s both the rotation and bullpen that anchor it. Ranger Suarez has been great so far. Usually, the spotlight is on Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola at the top of Philadelphia’s rotation, but Suarez has really stole the show.
He’s currently on track to surpass a career-high fWAR of 3.0 and could do it before the All-Star break begins. It’s not that Suarez can’t hit at all, but rather that he’s become able to hit. Consistently go deep into the gameWhile keeping runs to a minimum, Suarez has pitched at least six innings in eight of his first 10 starts this season, allowing the most runs in a start with three. So while Suarez currently holds the second-best ERA in all of baseball (34, behind Shota Imanaga’s 21), his FIP is currently just outside the top five among qualified pitchers.
This isn’t to say that Ranger Suarez is stepping up to replace Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Far from it, in fact — Wheeler is currently on track for another big season on the mound, and Nola has pitched flawlessly as a starter. They’re also getting great work from Christopher Sanchez and others, and Taijuan Walker is handling the job at the back of the rotation. Not to mention guys like Matt Stram and Jeff Hoffman in the Philadelphia bullpen who have extremely microscopic ERAs and FIPs. What makes this team so dangerous is that if you’re going to face the Phillies, it doesn’t really matter what point in the game you’re facing them, because you’re likely going to end up facing a nasty pitcher eventually.
Another debate about the Phillies’ early success is the strength of their schedule, or lack thereof. Philadelphia has played 14 teams so far this season, and only the Atlanta Braves have a winning record. They rode into Philadelphia on opening weekend and won the series. Other than that, the Phillies have beaten teams that are basically mediocre or downright terrible. They’re playing every team currently in last place in their division except for the Oakland Athletics, who they don’t play until mid-July. Philadelphia hasn’t exactly tackled Murderer’s Row so far, and we’ve yet to see them tackle the really tough parts of their schedule.
Also, where it could become an issue for Philadelphia in the future is when the baseball metagame catches up with the pitchers. Typically in baseball, every pitcher is at very high risk of being hit a third time in any game. The MLB averages this season are currently .238/.303/.384 first in the batting order, .248/.309/.410 second in the batting order, and .265/.326/.446 third in the batting order. The obvious penalty has been there since baseball began.
So let’s see how the Phillies are doing (with all due respect to Paul Boyet) Phillies Therapy Podcast):
That would be really surprising. And it could go either way. If it carries on like this, the Phillies could end up with the best regular season record in baseball and the 2001 Mariners could fade into history. Once things finally get back to reality with this rotation (i.e., start facing tougher competition), we might see the Phillies decline and become a bit more mediocre and less “history making” kind of thing.
However, the Phillies did not actively choose these teams to play against. Right now, MLB has a balanced schedule where everyone is playing. Plus, if Philadelphia struggled against this level of competition, everyone would probably be making fun of them. So we have to commend them for going about their business. On top of that, a win against a team with a winning percentage below .500 is not worth any less than a win against a team with a winning record. They’re all the same count, and the Phillies have done an incredible job accumulating this many wins for themselves this year. early in the season.
So, can they pull away from the Braves? That remains to be seen, especially since Atlanta isn’t even playing at full strength right now and is already comfortably above .500. That being said, it’s safe to assume the Phillies will be at or near the top of their division for most of this season. Their offense has always been strong, their pitching has reached new heights, and they’ve beaten the teams they need to beat. The Phillies are off to a great start, and it will be interesting to see how long they can continue this level of play.
