According to reports, the Biden administration is growing concerned that Russia and North Korea may be planning an “October surprise” ahead of the US presidential election.
The strengthening military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could lead to an expansion of Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal and increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. Six senior U.S. government officials told NBC News..
According to the media, Putin and Kim Jong Un are expected to agree to expand the transfer of military technology to Pyongyang when Putin visits North Korea in the coming weeks.
“2024 is not going to be a good year. It’s going to be a roller coaster,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The United States is also wary of North Korea’s most serious military action in a decade coming up before the November presidential election, which could require Putin’s approval, the official added.
“There’s no question North Korea will be provocative this year. The question is just how much it escalates,” a U.S. intelligence official told NBC.
The timing of the provocations may be aimed at sparking unrest abroad as U.S. voters prepare to cast their ballots for either Biden or former President Donald Trump.
US intelligence officials have previously accused Moscow of meddling in the US election to put Trump in the White House.
NBC noted that relations between the Biden administration and Russia are also extremely tense, especially following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
According to the media report, U.S. officials believe Putin is providing nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology to North Korea in exchange for military supplies for the war in Ukraine.
Two years into the conflict, North Korea is now supplying more weapons to Russia than Europe is supplying to Ukraine.
In return, North Korea is asking Russia to provide ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles and other advanced technology, officials said.
Experts are also concerned that Russia could help North Korea complete the final preparations for its first nuclear-armed submarine.
“Russian more advanced technical assistance is done in ways that are very difficult to monitor,” a senior administration official told NBC about the exchange.
The US has not had any significant dialogue with the Kim regime in three years, the official told NBC.
The Biden administration has tried to reach out to North Korea again this year but has reportedly received no response.
NBC explained that signs that North Korea is continuing to advance its missile program, including testing hypersonic missiles, are also raising concerns.
U.S. officials have warned that Moscow may now be helping North Korea develop long-range ballistic missiles that can re-enter the atmosphere completely intact after flying thousands of miles.
Nuclear-capable missiles with re-entry capabilities would pose a significant threat to U.S. defense systems.
Activity has also increased in the third tunnel at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility, suggesting preparations for a new test are underway.
“Both the United States and South Korea assess that North Korea has completed all necessary preparations to conduct its seventh nuclear test from the tunnel,” said Beyond Parallel, a Korea Peninsula research project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“We’re going to be fully prepared. [in the event of a nuclear test]”A senior Biden administration official told NBC.
The media added that experts expect Russia will be hesitant to pressure North Korea and provoke the United States on the eve of the November election because of Putin’s close ties with China. China is generally hesitant to create further instability in the region.
Still, tensions in the region continue to rise, fuelled by two wars in two years: the conflict in Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas that began last October.
The Trump campaign has repeatedly touted the idea that both wars were the result of Biden’s leadership.
