The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash this month has sparked two conflicts: one over power and the other over Raisi’s status as the leading candidate to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as “supreme leader.”
Under the Iranian theocracy’s rules,Supreme Leader“ He is a Shiite Muslim cleric with autocratic powers who directly controls the more powerful and aggressive wing of the Iranian military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a US-designated terrorist organisation.
The Supreme Leader has final say on all domestic and foreign policy decisions, appoints most of Iran’s most senior officials, and controls much of Iran’s wealth through a series of bogus “charitable trusts.” Interim President Continue After Raisi’s death, Mohammed Mokbel rose to power by taking control of the largest of these trusts.
The Supreme Leader also controls Iran’s farcical “elections” for the country’s president and parliament by appointing half of the 12-member clerical council, the Guardian Council. Disqualification Nearly everyone running for president before the vote has taken place. The Guardian Council can also nullify laws passed by parliament if it determines that they violate Islamic law in any way.
The other six members of the Oversight Council are appointed by Iran’s judiciary, whose members are appointed by the supreme leader.
Even in the political sphere where Iranians can nominally vote Mysterious The Supreme Leader’s “deputies” can seize power from the nominal holders of any office at the Supreme Leader’s whim.
The Supreme Leader is selected by a secret group of 88 “honorable and learned” clerics called the Assembly of Experts, which is controlled by the Guardian Council, giving the Supreme Leader ultimate control over who can “run” for his office upon his retirement.
The Assembly of Experts meets once a year and could theoretically choose to remove the supreme leader or not approve another eight-year term, but has never done so. Iran maintains the fiction that a wise men selects the best among them to be supreme leader, but the process is quite similar to an imperial succession.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with students in Tehran, Iran on October 18, 2017. (Courtesy of Iranian Leader’s Press Office/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
Ayatollah Khamenei, now 80 years old and subject to long-standing rumors of poor health, became In 1989, following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the first leader of the Iranian Revolution, he became the second Supreme Leader of Iran. A staunch follower of Khomeini, he contributed to the establishment of the current government after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the founding of the IRGC.
Khamenei’s elevation posed a bit of a problem for the decade-old Islamic Republic of Iran because he had not achieved the clerical rank of Ayatollah or Grand Ayatollah., The highest religious office held by Ayatollah Khomeini. The Iranian constitution was amended to remove the requirement that the supreme leader also be the Grand Ayatollah, instead requiring candidates to demonstrate solid “Islamic scholarship.”
Khamenei elevated him to the rank of ayatollah to add some appearances before taking office, but his successor could be someone without religious credentials. Raisi, a staunch disciple of Khamenei’s who claims his family are direct descendants of Muhammad, has sometimes spoken out against the government’s decision. Mentioned To myself He may have been recognized as an “ayatollah” but not formally assumed the position, but he was still a strong candidate to succeed Khamenei, and of course even if he had not yet been a full ayatollah, the Assembly of Experts could have appointed him an ayatollah immediately, as it did for Khamenei in 1989.
Expert meeting met The assembly met as scheduled on Tuesday, two days after the death of Raisi, who was on the helicopter that crashed with Ali Al-Hashem. Parliament expectedly extended Khamenei’s term for another eight years, although many observers question whether he will survive to the end of that term.
Mr Raisi’s only serious rival to succeed him is the supreme leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, 54. Some Iran watchers believe Mr Raisi’s opportunistic death may have been engineered to pave the way for the younger Khamenei to succeed him.
According to this theory, Ayatollah Khamenei gave Raisi many important positions not because he was grooming him to be supreme leader, but because Raisi was a trusted servant, and when Raisi began to aspire to the highest position, the ayatollah or his son decided to remove him.
AFP Explained Mojtaba Khamenei has been described as “an enigmatic figure who rarely appears in public but wields great influence behind the scenes and is subject to US sanctions.”
The young Khamenei Authorized The US Treasury Department imposed the sanctions in November 2019 to “block the flow of funds to Ali Khamenei’s shadowy network of military and diplomatic advisers who have for decades oppressed the Iranian people, exported terror, and promoted destabilizing policies around the world.” Raisi was also sanctioned as a member of this network.
The Treasury Department noted that Mojtaba Khamenei acted as his father’s official representative “despite never being elected or appointed to any government position.” Khamenei also worked closely with the Quds Force, an arm of the IRGC. Incite Riots, political unrest and terrorism are occurring throughout the Middle East.
“Khamenei has long wanted his son Mojtaba to succeed him,” Ali Fathollah Nejad, director of the Center for the Middle East and World Order, told AFP.
Fathollah Nejad said a major obstacle to Khamenei’s ambitions was Islamic revolutionaries’ disdain for the hereditary monarchy they overthrew in 1979. Khamenei himself has said the hereditary system is “un-Islamic.”
While it may be a little inappropriate for Khamenei’s son to take over as Supreme Leader, “with the death of Sheikh Raisi, the situation regarding Khamenei’s succession has been completely changed,” making Mojtaba Khamenei the clear front-runner.
File photo of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, taking part in a demonstration marking Jerusalem Day in Tehran on May 31, 2019. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty)
“If Khamenei dies or Mojtaba is declared his successor, new popular protests against the regime would not be unlikely,” Fathollah Nejad predicted.
With Raisi gone and Mojtaba Khamenei’s choice uncertain, the Assembly of Experts could turn to lesser-known figures such as clerics. Alireza ArafiHe has unusual powers because he sits on both the Assembly of Experts and the Guardian Council.
Arafi has a history of successfully running Iran’s religious institutions and, unlike most of the theocratic religious leaders, is a supporter of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence.
Unlike Mojtaba Khamenei and the late Ibrahim Raisi, Ayatollah Alafi is already an ayatollah and the current supreme leader has publicly praised him, but he does not claim to be part of Muhammad’s lineage, a claim signified in Iran by wearing a black turban.
Another dark horse candidate for supreme leader is Iran’s Attorney GeneralGholamhossein Mohseni Ejay. Ejay is a brutal hardliner and a monster in the same league as “Butcher of Tehran” Raisi. He is musical instrument In Iran’s recent crackdown on protests Ugly treatment He has been an advocate for women’s rights. Like Raisi and Mojtaba Khamenei, he Authorized This is a US initiative and a CV boost for the Iranian ruling class.
Iran must move forward with replacing President Raisi within 50 days, the maximum period allowed under Moqbel’s constitutional term. Some observers say expect Mojtaba Khamenei announced his candidacy after Raisi’s death, saying he was already running Iran’s secular government from behind the scenes. If the younger Khamenei becomes president, it would be a strong indication of his intention to seek the supreme leader’s position upon his father’s death or retirement.
Ejay too Short List Many observers see him running for president, perhaps as a stepping stone to a bid for supreme leader.
Voice of America News (VOA) Wednesday talked Iranians were deeply concerned about the move to replace President Raisi, with some feeling there were few worthy candidates to succeed him and others fearing political instability during a caretaker presidency.
This government a bit Embarrassing Though many Iranians despised Mr. Raisi and celebrated his death, he also had supporters, some of whom said his brutal crackdown on dissent was essential to keeping Iran together, and who feared that a successor without Mr. Raisi’s iron fist might not be able to quell dissent. Large scale Rebellion Cases like the murder of Mahsa Amini by Iran’s “morality police.”
Stimson Center pointed Outside He said Wednesday that transitions of power in Iran often involve a series of dismissals, assassinations and betrayals as different factions vie for position. Never before since the 1979 revolution has an Iranian leader been succeeded by the person most likely to succeed him a year before he died or stepped down.
