A new national poll suggests that whether former President Trump is found guilty or innocent in his criminal trial, the verdict will not have a significant impact on voters’ perceptions of a rematch against President Biden in the 2024 presidential election.
Two-thirds of voters nationwide asked in an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll released Thursday said a guilty verdict at trial would not affect their vote in the presidential election, while 17% said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he was convicted and 15% said they would be more inclined to support the former president at the polls.
Three-quarters of those surveyed said it would not affect their vote if Trump is acquitted, while 14% said an acquittal would make them more likely to support Trump and 9% said it would make them less likely to vote for the former president.
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Former President Trump sits in court during a trial at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on May 30, 2024. (Michael M. Santiago/Pool via Reuters)
Trump currently holds a slight lead over the president in national polls and in most of the key battleground states that will determine the outcome of the rematch.
But a verdict is still pending in the historic case, in which Trump is charged with 34 state crimes – the first criminal trial of a former or sitting president in U.S. history – and which could have implications for what is likely to be a close contest with Biden.
Trump is charged with falsifying business records in connection with payments he made to porn actress Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about an alleged affair during the 2016 election. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, $130,000 in exchange for keeping quiet about an alleged affair with Trump in 2006. Prosecutors allege this amounted to an illegal attempt to influence the 2016 election.
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Both Cohen and Daniels testified for the prosecution and were grilled by Trump’s defense team during cross-examination. The case has garnered widespread attention from cable news stations, online and on social media.
The former president has repeatedly denied falsifying business records or having a sexual relationship with Daniels, and has repeatedly claimed, without presenting any evidence, that the case is a “sham trial instigated and prosecuted directly from within the White House and the Department of Justice.”
Former President Trump speaks to the media alongside his lawyer, Todd Blanche, as he arrives at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on May 30, 2024. (Michael M. Santiago/Pool via Reuters)
Trump has also been fined several times in the case and threatened with jail by the judge for violating a gag order meant to protect witnesses and jurors from the former president’s verbal attacks.
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“I don’t think a conviction is going to fundamentally change the complexion of the race,” said veteran pollster Chris Anderson, a member of Fox News’ election decision team and the Democratic partner of Fox News Polling.
President Biden and former President Trump (AP Photo/Alex Brandon | Curtis Means/DailyMail.com via The Associated Press, Pool)
Daron Shaw, professor and chair of political science at the University of Texas, a member of Fox News’ decision-making team and a partner at the Republican Party, said: Fox News Poll“Before 2020, no one would have thought that a candidate could survive a criminal conviction,” he said.
“But times and circumstances change. While the specific findings of the jury may be important, some believe this guilty verdict will not significantly change the course of the race,” Shaw stressed.
They pointed to the fact that “attitudes are very set” regarding both the Republican former president and his Democratic successor in the White House.
of Marist Poll for NPR and PBS NewsHour The survey was conducted among 1,122 voters nationwide from May 21 to 23. The overall survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
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