Republicans are trying to take advantage of an electoral map that will be tough for Democrats in November’s Senate elections, but some experts say crowded primaries in key battleground states could hurt Republican attempts to pick up key Senate seats.
“Campaign lore dictates that any ‘divisive primary’ will give the other party an advantage in the general election polls,” said Jacob Neiheisel, an associate professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, State University of New York.
In Nevada, which holds its Senate primary on June 11, and Michigan, which doesn’t hold its primary until August, the Republican field is relatively large despite having clear front-runners.
Both Senate seats are held by Democrats, with Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada) running for reelection, but Michigan’s race has become more competitive after Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) decided to retire at the end of her term.
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Divisive primaries in Nevada and Michigan could make the general election more difficult for front-runners Sam Brown and Mike Rogers if they win their states’ nominations. (Getty Images)
Nevada’s Senate race is one of the few races considered “even-five” by nonpartisan political handicappers. Cook Political ReportMichigan’s election is considered a “Democrat advantage.”
“Senate Republicans are waiting with bated breath as they expect an endorsement from Trump,” Ron Bonjean, a GOP strategist, former spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and former chief of staff for the Senate Republican Conference, said of the Nevada primary.
“If he [Jeff] “If Gunter can outperform Brown and his popularity, it could very well give Senator Rosen and the Democrats an edge in winning here,” he explained, referring to the former Trump ambassador to Iceland who is personally bankrolling a campaign against the Republican primary front-runner, retired Army Capt. Sam Brown.
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Brown previously lost out to Adam Laxalt for the Senate nomination. (Brandon Gillespie/Fox News)
There are several candidates vying for the Republican Senate nomination in Nevada, with the most likely candidates being Brown, Gunter and former Nevada Rep. Jim Marchant.
Joanna Warshaw, a spokesperson for Rosen’s campaign, told Fox News Digital in a statement: “While extreme MAGA opponents like Sam Brown have been forced to fight over the past year to prove who is most loyal to Donald Trump and embrace his far-right policies, Jacky Rosen is focused on winning the general election and sharing her track record as one of the most bipartisan and effective senators serving the people of Nevada.”
“The chaotic MAGA Republican primary stands in stark contrast to Jackie’s track record of cutting costs for hardworking families and serving as an independent voice for Nevada across party lines.”
Fox News Digital has reached out to Brown’s campaign for comment.
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Some have suggested the drama of the primary could affect the general election, while others disagree. According to Nevada Republican strategist Jeremy Hughes, “Crowded primary field is common in politics today. In fact, Governor Lombard ran a primary in 2022 and ultimately won the general election.”
“Republican voters will be united in November. Joe Biden, Alvin Bragg and the Democratic Party are making sure of that.”
“Whether the Republican primaries in these states work in Democrats’ favor will depend on a number of factors, including whether internal Republican infighting gives Democrats ammunition to challenge their candidates in the general election,” Neiheisel argued.
Rogers has been endorsed by President Trump. (AP Photo/Paul Sancia)
In Michigan, former President Trump has already endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers as the Republican candidate, but that hasn’t stopped wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler, who is backed by former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, from running. Former Rep. Justin Amash is also seeking the nomination. Another former Rep. Peter Meyer recently suspended his primary campaign.
“President Trump’s endorsement of Rogers, who has emerged as the consensus candidate after a complicated path to becoming a top contender, has been met with mixed reviews from both hard-line and establishment Republicans in the state,” Bonjean said.
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While Rogers remains the front-runner and is expected to win the nomination in August, Michigan Republican strategist Jason Cabell Law noted that “he only has three months to ramp up his general election campaign.”
“And if he has to go on to fight Amash and Pensler in the actual primary, he’s probably going to finish the primary with no money in his bank account and have to replenish it,” he added.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination, but she is also facing a primary challenger in actor Hill Harper, but Slotkin has spent little time campaigning against Harper, instead focusing on the general election.
Lowe noted Slotkin’s fundraising prowess and predicted she “will have millions of dollars in the bank” by the end of the primary.
Slotkin is likely to win the Democratic nomination. (Bill Priano/Getty Images)
“It was for Rodgers and [National Republican Senatorial Committee] And we support the Senate Leadership Fund,” he added.
As it stands, Republican strategists believe Pensler and Amash are “getting in the way of Rogers’ efforts to build a campaign that can compete with someone like Slotkin.”
In a statement to Fox News Digital, the NRSC expressed confidence in both Rogers and Brown in the November election.
“Mike Rogers and Sam Brown have large primary leads because their opponents are not Trump supporters or former Democrats. We are confident they will win their respective primaries and lead to extremely tough elections in Michigan and Nevada in November,” said NRSC spokesperson Maggie Abboud.
“Republican Senate candidates are reeling from a series of reports exposing lies about their backgrounds, financial weaknesses and a lifetime of damaging rhetoric and policy positions,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Tommy Garcia said in a statement.
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“Meanwhile, primaries in states like Nevada and Michigan are in chaos. The NRSC’s high stakes bet on backing unvetted candidates looks worse by the day.”
Neiheisel said the general elections in both states will ultimately be decided by the candidates.
“The particular candidates that emerge from these races will stand out as the biggest determinants of the ultimate outcome,” he said. “Even in times of political polarization, the quality of the candidates still matters.”
