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Taiwan watches Ukraine for lessons on possible war with China

Taipei, Taiwan Ukraine’s existential war for sovereignty from Russia has galvanized Taiwan, an island nation thousands of miles away that hopes to deter authoritarian Chinese aggression.

Though cultures and geographies are vastly different, Ukraine’s suffering resonates most deeply on the shores of Taiwan, where people identify with the Eastern European nation’s plight — a comparison made even sharper by the deepening alliance between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The situation in Ukraine has been a wake-up call for a lot of people, including Taiwanese people,” Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, a Pennsylvania Democrat, told Fox News Digital in Taipei. “I think we’re living in a post-World War II, post-Cold War mindset, like that’s a thing of the past. There’s an axis between Iran and China and Russia, which is reminiscent of the history we’ve seen before. What I hear a lot from the Taiwanese people that we’ve met is a recognition that there’s certainly been a bit of a change of direction and that Taiwan has to change direction as well.”

This has prompted a shift in both Taiwan’s military and social policies in the face of an increasingly aggressive China, and even produced a roadmap for how to navigate U.S. aid. In particular, the U.S. political battle over aid to Ukraine has raised existential questions for Taiwan about whether U.S. aid is sustainable in times of protracted conflict.

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A screenshot of a Chinese military propaganda video published in Chinese state media. (People’s Liberation Army of China)

“The lesson for Taiwan is [an] “Asymmetric defense is effective for Taiwan’s defense. It is also important to increase society’s resilience to increase its endurance in war,” said Dr. Yi-Chun Lai, chairman of the Prospect Foundation, a Taiwanese think tank. “War may be long-term, not short-term, so the whole society needs to anticipate it.”

“The other thing is international support. We need to have it ready now, not later. First of all, Western support and coherence is important. It is very easy for authoritarian states to divide and conquer, so it is important to build support early on.”

Lai added that the focus should not only be on defending Taiwan but also on developing an offensive strategy to exact “the cost of war” on China.

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Until recently, Taiwan’s military focused primarily on training for a Chinese amphibious invasion, but factors such as the war in Ukraine have prompted growing discussions about shifting to preparing for diverse military scenarios, known as asymmetric responses.

The importance of preparing society for war is an important lesson for Taiwan, not only for its domestic unity but also to prove to its allies abroad that its support is meaningful.

In February 2022, Ukrainian forces stunned the world by defying expectations and thwarting a Russian invasion, despite predictions that Kiev could fall within days.

Michael McCall and Taiwan's President Lai Ching-che

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (left) poses with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, who is wearing a Stetson hat given to him by McCaul. (House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs)

U.S. lawmakers who traveled to Taipei last week to meet with the new administration stressed the importance of social factors in giving Taiwan a fighting chance if attacked.

Rep. Jimmy Panetta, D-Calif., said Taiwan’s government was taking steps such as more than doubling mandatory military service to show its allies and its people that it takes defense issues seriously.

“There’s still a lot more to do. People here will say that, people in the U.S. will say that, but if you look at the steps Taiwan has taken — increasing its defense budget to over 2 percent, changing conscription from four months to one year, and basically if you look at Ukraine, they understand that they don’t just need weapons, they’re willing to use them,” he said.

“They are getting ready to do that,” Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), co-chair of the House Taiwan Caucus, said in response to a question about whether Taiwanese people were prepared to defend their island.

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“I think what helped strengthen the resolve of the Taiwanese people was seeing what Beijing has done in Hong Kong. [Taiwan Strait] “In these military exercises,” Barr said.

English Media Taiwan News In April it was reported that 77% of young people in Taiwan were willing to fight for their country.

“Our goal is not to think about aggression or potential conflict, but to ensure deterrence by providing Taiwan with what it needs to protect and defend itself if a conflict occurs,” said Rep. Young Kim, a Republican from California who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Indo-Pacific subcommittee.

Chinese warships in the Indo-Pacific

A screenshot captured from the video shows the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command launching a large-scale joint military exercise with Chinese naval vessels and military aircraft around Taiwan on May 24, 2024. (Kui Xinhua News Agency/People’s Liberation Army/Chinese military/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

But what worries Taiwan is the political standoff in the U.S. Congress that has led to Ukraine receiving $61 billion in aid that Kiev’s supporters say came six months too late and at heavy cost to the Ukrainian military.

While neither Republican nor Democrat members of the delegation who spoke to Fox News Digital directly acknowledged that was an issue, policy experts in Taiwan thought differently.

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“There are potential concerns about that,” Lai said.

He explained that the United States views Taiwan “differently” than Ukraine because of its “consistent and significant interest” in Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, but that Taiwan is closely watching the impact any such delays could have on Ukraine’s arms stockpile.

“Whether it’s good or bad for Ukraine, Ukraine can have several weapons and transport vehicles, not only from the United States but also from European countries, but it can only get one from the United States,” Lai said.

“A scenario like Ukraine is imaginable,” said Dr Shen Ming-shih, director of the Institute for National Security and Defense Studies, another Taiwanese think tank, but added that it depended on how long Taiwan could defend itself.

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