Biden faces growing warning signs from ‘uncommitted’ vote

President Biden lost more than 500,000 voters in this year’s Democratic primary to the “independent” movement, which won 30 delegates in five states, highlighting discontent within the party over Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

This week marks the final Democratic primary elections in US states ahead of the 2024 elections, and the “Uncommitted” campaign won 10 percent of the vote in New Mexico and 9 percent in New Jersey, one of the states with the largest Arab-American populations.

Those states lag behind places like Michigan, where more than 101,000 electors cast ballots against Biden earlier this year, and Minnesota, where 45,000 votes gave Biden’s supporters 11 delegates, the most of any state.

The protest votes show Biden faces an increasingly tough task of winning back those voters before it’s too late, and Democrats say his campaign should take this seriously.

“Of course they should be worried,” said a former Biden campaign staffer. “If they’re not going to vote [Biden]”They’re already disappointed. Donald Trump is a disruptor and an agent of change, so he may be an attractive option for some of those people.”

Polls show Biden in a close race with former rival Trump, including in battleground states like Michigan, though some polls show Trump with a slight lead over Biden.

While Trump won over only a fraction of the Arab American voters Biden did in 2020, the move could mean many of those same voters may not take part in this year’s election.

The No Biden Movement, which is behind the protest voting efforts, declared on Thursday “the end of the primary season and the inexorable march toward the general election.”

“Our mission is clear: Joe Biden must be defeated,” the group said in a press release. “We will not stand by and watch. We are mobilized, we are enraged, and we are committed to ensuring that Joe Biden is defeated in the general election. The time for accountability is now.”

Since the protest vote campaign began, Biden has proposed for the first time a ceasefire that would lead to a lasting end to the war in Gaza, but it has done little to appease some of the people behind the campaign against the Democratic president.

Those upset by Biden’s handling of the war told The Hill in November that the president could still try to win their votes, but the “Drop Biden” rhetoric has translated into a vocal refusal to cast a ballot for the presumptive Democratic nominee in November.

“Biden’s speech is nothing more than diplomatic theatre, a grotesque display of blame-shifting while the carnage continues,” the movement said on Thursday, adding that “Israel’s death machine is run by Biden’s policies.”

Trump, meanwhile, called Biden “weak” on Israel and vowed to “fix the mess” if re-elected, but did not say how. The president’s Middle East policies, including a travel ban from Muslim-majority countries, have angered many Arab Americans.

The 30 delegates awarded through “undecided” ballots are spread across five states: Minnesota with 11 delegates, Kentucky with seven each, Hawaii with seven, Missouri with three, and Michigan with two.

But Michigan voters cast more than 100,000 ballots, the highest turnout of any state, and a total of 650,000 ballots were cast across those states.

Biden may also face problems with lawmakers in his own party.

One Democratic lawmaker, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Hill that people like Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) are urging people not to vote for Biden because of his handling of the war, and that people are listening, creating even more problems for the Biden campaign.

Earlier that year, Tlaib, a progressive congresswoman, said she was “proud” to have voted independent in the Michigan primary to express her frustration with the Gaza war.

“The president clearly has to reach out to undecided voters and speak to their concerns,” said David Castagnetti, who served as congressional liaison for former Democratic candidate John Kerry’s presidential campaign.

But he reiterated the idea that polls show voters are more worried about the economy during the election than foreign policy issues, an argument the Biden campaign also used in dealing with the protest vote.

poll The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer The survey, conducted April 28-May 9, found that Trump was leading in five of the six battleground states and that the economy was the most important issue in determining how people would vote in November, with foreign policy the ninth most important issue.

Arab and Muslim Americans, as well as younger Americans, are the most visible independent voters, but many Black and Hispanic voters, who played a crucial role in Biden’s 2020 victory, have also expressed concerns.

The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) said Thursday that Biden could gain support from black voters if he halted arms sales to Israel. A poll conducted by In Our Own Voice: National Black Women’s Reproductive Justice Agenda with PerryUndem found that 24% of black voters considered an Israel-Hamas war “extremely important” to them ahead of the election.

While there is a risk that these voters will not vote or will vote for a third-party candidate, some say Biden could make up for their loss by reaching out to more moderate voters.

“The trap for the Biden campaign is the temptation to make blatant appeals to far-left Democratic primary voters, who they’re never going to be satisfied with,” said Jim Kessler, executive vice president of policy at Third Way.

“Biden’s new treasure trove of votes will be in the center. Biden must continue to make a strong case for securing the border, reducing crime and controlling inflation. That’s key,” he added.

The idea of ​​Biden broadening his campaign so that he doesn’t rely solely on voters who won him the White House in 2020 — to include progressives who might vote against him over Israel — comes as Biden’s approval rating is trailing Trump by 0.8 percentage points, according to a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill poll tally.

Asked about the pending move with the Democratic primary nearly over, Biden’s campaign responded, “The president believes having his voice heard and participating in our democracy is fundamental to who we are as Americans.”

“He shares our goal of ending violence in the Middle East and achieving a just and lasting peace, and he is working tirelessly towards that goal,” the campaign spokesman added.

Voters outraged by Biden’s handling of the Gaza war must decide whether they would rather have Trump in the White House than Biden, but Democrats say protest votes against Trump are also something Biden must worry about.

“Since Super Tuesday, [former South Carolina Gov. Nikki] “Haley dropped out of the race, but Donald Trump got 80% of the vote and Biden got 87% of the vote. That shows both candidates have challenges to address, but Trump has a much bigger challenge,” Kessler said.