Typically, there are plenty of videos on social media showing the thickness of the rough during practice rounds at the U.S. Open.
The greens have been dangerous this year.
They are solid, they are fast, and they will cause a lot of headaches.
The ball was seen landing on the green and rolling into a sandy patch 40 yards away.
The second round at Pinehurst is not a typical U.S. Open test.
The course is very long for a par 70 (about 7,600 yards), but it’s not a competition to see who can hit the ball the farthest.
There is very little rough (on either the fairways or the greens) and if a golfer strays too far off the fairway they have to rely on Lady Luck.
The length may be daunting, but the firmness of the fairways means the course should play shorter than the numbers on the scorecard suggest.
Playing from the fairway is important, so there is an emphasis on total driving (a combination of distance and accuracy).
The last three winners on Pinehurst’s No. 2 hole all finished in the top five in both scrambling and putting.
A good short game is extremely important.
Ideally, we are looking for golfers who excel in four areas: total driving, long irons, around the greens and putting.
Experience in your major and a strong track record in long and challenging courses are also a plus.
Here are my best bets for the 2024 U.S. Open (odds via BetMGM):
Collin Morikawa (14/1)
Scottie Scheffler has won five of the last eight tournaments and is the best golfer in the world.
Still, with 156 golfers in the field, you can’t bet on him at odds of +333.
My plan for this week is to split the outright bets half on the outright and half on the winner market without Schaeffler (Morikawa at 12/1).
I’m glad that Morikawa’s games are popular right now.
While his short game has won him the majority of the season, in his last three starts (all top four finishes) he has gained 8.2, 7.9 and 6.9 strokes in ball striking, respectively.
He is one of the best total driver and long iron players in the field.
If he can combine that with his recent short game prowess, I think he has a good chance of being in the running to win on Sunday.
Bryson DeChambeau (20/1)
DeChambeau may have a wider range of outcomes than most golfers competing, but that’s usually a positive when it comes to betting in the outright markets.
We don’t care about a player’s minimum level, we care about his maximum level.
He’s a smart golfer, so we expect him to have a better game plan than the other golfers at Pinehurst Round 2.
DeChambeau has already won the U.S. Open and is competing to win each of the first two major tournaments this season.
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One chip away from eliminating him from the Masters and nearly sending him into a playoff against Xander Schauffele in the PGA Championship.
He’s a golfer who never backs down if he’s in a position to win on Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton Top 10 Finish (+400)
Given the firmness of the course and the fact that every golfer will suffer some bad luck at some point during a tournament, many are concerned about Hatton’s temperament.
There’s nothing wrong with him expressing his frustrations on the course — he even said it helps him release stress and focus on the next shot.
From a statistical standpoint, it doesn’t get much better than this.
He was well above average in all four strokes gained categories, finished in the top 10 at the Masters, and this course suits his game.
