Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predict that Bitcoin (BTC) could hit nearly $200,000 by the end of next year, bolstered by a surge in inflows into a U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) since it was approved in January, an upward revision from their previous target of $150,000.
The analyst based this prediction on the assumption that physical Bitcoin ETFs could account for around 7% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply by the end of 2025.
“We expect a Bitcoin ETF to be on the verge of being approved on major brokerage and private bank platforms in Q3 or Q4,” Bernstein analysts Gautam Chugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a client note.
“Institutional base trading appears to be a ‘Trojan horse’ for adoption, and these investors are in the process of evaluating their ‘net long’ positions.”
Currently, roughly 80% of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows come from self-managed retail investors via brokerage platforms, with institutional integration with brokerages still in its early stages, according to analysts.
“ETFs combined have brought in roughly $15 billion in net new inflows,” the analysts wrote. “We expect Bitcoin ETFs to represent roughly 7% of circulating Bitcoin by 2025 and roughly 15% of Bitcoin supply by 2033.”
“We expect Spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management to reach approximately $190 billion by the market peak in 2025 and $3 trillion by 2033.”
Bernstein analysts also suggest that BTC price has entered a new bull market cycle due to the recent Bitcoin halving event, as they expect new catalysts to emerge that will stimulate demand for the asset.
“We believe Bitcoin is in a new bull cycle. The ‘halving’ creates a unique situation where the natural selling pressure of Bitcoin by miners is reduced by half (or even further as they anticipate and build up inventory), while creating new catalysts for Bitcoin demand, leading to exponential price movements.”
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Apart from capital inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF, the pioneering cryptocurrency has also seen significant institutional inflows.
MicroStrategy, the largest corporate BTC holder, continued its aggressive BTC accumulation strategy, acquiring an additional 11,931 BTC for approximately $786 million. according to To founder and former CEO Michael Saylor.
The business intelligence company currently holds 226,331 BTC, roughly 1.15% of the world’s total supply of Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy previously announced plans to issue $800 million in convertible notes due in 2032, with the proceeds planned to be used to increase its Bitcoin holdings.
Bernstein predicts that if bitcoin accumulation continues over the next few years, the company’s holdings could grow to account for 1.5% of bitcoin’s total circulation by the end of 2025.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment or trading involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making any decision.
