According to an internal Republican poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, the Montana Senate race is a close race between Republican Tim Sheehy, who is endorsed by President Trump, and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).
The poll, surface Via the polling aggregation X account @IAPolls2022, it was found that Sheehy and Tester are both receiving 46 percent support in a four-way race in the Republican-leaning state.
📊 Montana GE: @POStrategies (Inside R)
Senate
*Tester: 46%
Sheehy: 46%
Downey: 2%
Daoud: 2%
—
president
Trump: 57%
Biden: 37%
Other: 2%
—
Governor
*Gianforte: 54%
Busse: 33%
Live: 5%
—
Attorney General
*Knudsen: 55%
Arke: 33%
—
#139… pic.twitter.com/Fk0XaN2Ija— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024
It’s unclear for whom Public Opinion Strategies conducted the poll, but @IAPolls2022 wrote, “Inside R.” The polling organization did not immediately respond to a Breitbart News request for comment asking who commissioned the poll.
Breaking it down further, of those who support Sheehy, 36% said they would “definitely” support him, 8% said they would “probably” vote and 2% said they were “leaning towards Sheehy.”
Similarly, 39 percent said they would “definitely” support Tester, while 7 percent said they would “probably” support him.
The Green Party’s Michael Downey and the Libertarian Party’s Syd Dowd each have 2% of the support, with the remaining 3% undecided.
Tester, one of the Democrats most vulnerable to reelection in 2024, was the last Democrat to win a state legislative election in Montana, defeating Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) six years ago. Winner He won the Senate election that year by a 3.5-point margin, 50.3 percent to 46.8 percent.
If the two faced off in a presidential election, the poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by 20 points, 57 percent to 37 percent, respectively. Half of Montanans said they would “definitely” vote for Trump, 5 percent said “probably” and 2 percent said they were “leaning toward Trump.”
By contrast, just 32% said they would “definitely” support Biden if the election were held today, 4% said they would “probably” support him, and 1% said they would “tend to support him.”
Trump’s lead is larger than the margin of victory he had over Biden in 2020. Scored 56.9 percent to Biden’s 40.5 percent. But that’s roughly the same margin of victory as the popular vote between Trump and Biden in 2016. Earned 55.6 percent of voters supported Clinton, including 35.4 percent of Montanans.
The poll was conducted among 500 voters between June 11-13, 2024, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
