A new poll shows former President Trump maintaining his lead in key battleground states in the 2024 presidential election.
According to a poll released Tuesday by AARP, President Trump is leading President Biden in Nevada by 3 percentage points: 48% of Nevada voters support President Trump, while 45% say they would vote for Biden if the election were held today.
That slim lead widens to seven points if independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included, who has not yet qualified to vote in Nevada, and the state’s Democratic Party is currently filing a lawsuit challenging his eligibility.
Trump’s lead is even more pronounced among voters over 50, who support the Republican front-runner by double digits over Democrat Biden, 53% to 41%. A bright spot for Biden is that he holds a 51% lead among Hispanic voters in the same age group to Trump’s 41%, according to the AARP poll.
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On the left is former President Trump and on the right is President Biden. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
“Our state has a large Hispanic population, so their vote will matter,” said Maria Moore, AARP Nevada state director. Hispanics make up 22% of Nevada’s voting population, according to a 2022 Pew Research Center analysis cited in an AARP news release.
Nevada is one of the states that could determine who wins next year’s presidential election. The battleground state hasn’t seen a Republican presidential candidate run there since President George W. Bush ran for reelection in 2004. But Biden narrowly won the 2020 election with 50.06% of the vote to Trump’s 47.67%.
A Fox News poll released earlier this month found Biden trailing Trump by five points.
Republicans are optimistic they can flip the state after incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombard defeated Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak in the 2022 election.
In a recent New York Times essay, Lombardo argued that Nevada voters are unhappy with Biden’s economic policies.
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Former President Trump points his finger during a campaign rally in Sunset Park in Las Vegas on June 9. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)
“If recent polls of Democratic candidates in Nevada are any indication, and I believe they are, Biden has big problems to overcome. Because after three and a half years, Nevadans are losing confidence that Biden will take meaningful action on inflation and housing, and they’re starting to feel like he doesn’t know what to do.” He wrote.
The AARP survey found that only 40% of voters over 50 generally approve of Biden’s job performance, while 59% disapprove. Looking back at President Trump’s first term, 56% of voters over 50 approve of his performance as president, while 43% disapprove.
The survey also asked about the Nevada Senate race, in which Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is seeking reelection against Republican challenger Sam Brown, a wounded combat veteran. The poll found that Rosen leads Brown among all age groups, 47% to 42%, buoyed by support from Hispanic voters.
“Rosen’s lead is driven by his margin among Hispanic and Latino voters,” said pollster Bob Ward.
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Nevada Governor Joe Lombard (left) wrote an op-ed in the New York Times arguing that the economy is driving Nevadans to support President Trump over President Biden. (Getty Images)
The most important issue for Nevada voters is economyAccording to the AARP survey, rising food prices, immigration and border security are the main causes.
Jeff List, a pollster at Impact Research, suggested split voters will be a deciding factor in the next election.
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“When you look at older voters, 43 percent vote Republican and 35 percent vote Democrat, while 23 percent split their vote,” List told AARP.[That’s] This indicates that there are more voters available now than in recent elections.”
Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward partnered with Democratic polling firm Impact Research to survey 1,368 voters from June 12 to 18. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
