Former President Donald Trump’s Fourth of July momentum is perhaps the strongest he’s experienced during the 2024 election cycle, according to several independent surveys.
Even before President Joe Biden’s dismal performance in last week’s debate, numerous polls — national, battleground state and primary issue surveys — showed Trump beating Biden on nearly every front.
Post-debate polls seem to show Trump gaining momentum.
But the Biden campaign appears to be disputing the data. Circulated Internal Recent polls have shown Biden’s position in the race unchanged, raising questions about the accuracy of Biden’s internal polling.
Nate Silver’s election model projections from June 30 (after the first presidential debate) show Trump leading Biden by six points in the popular vote in November. win In 2004, George W. Bush won 50.73 percent of the popular vote.
Silver’s June 30 election model forecast was the first to predict that Trump would win the popular vote over Biden, which had him trailing by two points the day before the debate.
More importantly, Trump has a 68.4% chance of winning the Electoral College (the process that determines the election outcome), while Biden has just a 31% chance of being re-elected.
Below are the top five post-debate polls that seem to support Silver’s analysis.
OneSuffolk University Poll: 41% of Democrats want President Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election, while just 51% want him to remain a candidate.
two: YouGov PollSeventy-two percent of voters say Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health necessary to serve as president, and an additional 72% want him to drop out of the race.
three: The New York Times/Siena vote: Trump now leads Biden by six points, a three-point difference from last week and his largest lead since 2015. Times vote.
four: The Wall Street Journal vote: Trump is leading Biden by six points, his largest lead ever. journal investigation.
Five: Leaked Open Labs internal poll: “Biden’s vote share in two-way horse races drops -0.8 percentage points” and “anti-Trump vote share in multi-way horse races also drops -0.8 percentage points.” The memo reveals that the results are “the largest one-week drop since horse race tracking began in late 2021.”
Honorable Mention: CNN Poll:
Wendell Fsebo is a political reporter for Breitbart News and a former Republican War Room analyst. The Politics of Slave MoralityFollow Wendell “Bat” @WendellHusebø or The truth of society @WendellHusebo.
