I use this space to Houston Astros This season has yet to really take off and the team has been in a quagmire. Most of the rotation has been in disarray and the hitters have been sluggish. Seattle MarinersThere were already rumors the Astros might consider selling him at the trade deadline. That’s how tough it was.
Now, a month later, the questions have suddenly changed. Instead of wondering if the Astros will falter and start selling, the question is now whether the Mariners can hold on to their once-greatest division lead in the AL West. Houston is 20-10 in their last 30 games, currently three games above .500 and in the thick of playoff contention. Meanwhile, Seattle is 16-14 in their last 30 games and 3-7 in their last 10.
As a result of this sudden change in fortunes, the Astros are now just two games behind the Mariners in the AL West, and Fangraphs’ playoff odds reflect that. Houston has a 60% chance of making the postseason and a 45% chance of winning the division. This comes after the Astros had a 40% chance of returning to the playoffs and just a 24% chance of winning the division as of June 5. The Astros have a better chance (10%) of earning a first-round bye than the Mariners currently have (8.3%). The boogeyman of this department has come back to life. The word “destiny” gets thrown around a lot here.
So why the sudden change in form for both teams? Part of it could be the natural progression of the long marathon that is baseball’s regular season, but at the same time, it’s still a bit shocking to see things change so quickly for both teams. Normally it takes a while to see a change like this, and if this had happened in, say, September instead of June or July, it might have gotten more attention. That being said, it’s very interesting to see how quickly the Astros have been able to turn things around, and conversely, it’s a bit concerning that the Mariners haven’t been able to turn things around as quickly.
The driving force behind the Astros’ return to the top of the AL West is the improved offense. I said last month that the Astros’ struggles weren’t the fault of the offense, but Houston still had room to improve when it came to hitting. As expected, Houston’s lineup finally came alive, batting .274/.329/.445 since June 1. Additionally, they’ve posted a wOBA of .335 and a team wRC+ of 119 since the start of June, which is tied for the seventh-best in baseball during that time.
The leading force behind Houston’s revitalization is Yordan Alvarez. Since the beginning of last month, they have launched a fierce attack on the opposing pitchers. This season, Jordan has produced 2.0 fWAR, including 2.8. Only after June 1st. Alvarez is hitting .366/.466/.796 with a .513 wOBA and 10 homers in 118 at-bats for a wRC+ of 240 since the aforementioned date. This is Gunnar Henderson territory, folks. No, this is Aaron Judge territory. It also helps that regulars like Jose Altuve (152 wRC+ since June 1) and Alex Bregman (128 wRC+ in the same span) have stepped up and are hitting as well as most baseball watchers expect them to. The Astros are a tough team to deal with at the plate, but that has always been the case since their rebuild began to bear fruit in the mid-2010s.
The reason Houston’s offense has thrived so much is because they’ve done so without Kyle Tucker, who was placed on the disabled list with a bruised shin in early June, highlighting just how tough the situation was for the rest of the Astros roster. Despite missing every game since June 3, Tucker leads Houston in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, xwOBA and wRC+, is tied for first in home runs and is tied for second in stolen bases.
Tucker has been the best player in the Astros’ lineup this season, and his departure could have sounded the death knell for Houston’s lineup if the rest of the Astros remained weak at the plate. But players have stepped up in Tucker’s absence, and Astros fans must be dreaming of what this lineup could be like once Tucker returns and the offense is functioning at full strength again.
Houston’s pitching staff has been interesting during this stretch, to say the least. Having lost two starters this season and with another currently out, the position certainly weighs on the Astros’ shoulders. The vesting option may expire in 2025. If anything, the Astros have continued to attack in that regard, and Hunter Brown’s performance since June 1 has to some extent reflected what the Astros have done on the mound in that span.
Since the beginning of June, the Astros’ staff has posted an astounding 85 ERA, third-best in all of baseball. Oddly enough, Houston’s FIP over that same period is decidedly middling at 104. Now let’s look at what Hunter Brown is doing. What were you doing during that time? And suddenly, his 25 ERA and 73 FIP since June 1 start to make a little more sense. With his performance, coupled with Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco doing their best to keep the rotation afloat, Houston’s rotation is arguably coming together at this point to be more than the sum of its parts. They have done just that, and it’s made clear by their return to a .500 winning percentage.
While it’s not the time to declare that the Astros are “back,” they are certainly back, and they’re definitely on a roll again. General manager Dana Brown’s faith in the team is paying off, and his confidence that Houston would get players at the deadline is suddenly looking like precognition rather than just coming off the tongue of a general manager. It’s never wise to call any team’s season over in the first half, but this is also a bit of a reminder that with a team like the Astros, this isn’t the time to write them off until they’re actually mathematically eliminated.
Speaking of GMs, the onus is now on Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto to help bring the Mariners back to life. The pitching staff is doing well, but Seattle clearly needs hitters. With Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, JP Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and even “Big Dumper” Cal Lowry in serious hitting slumps right now, the lineup needs some oomph and it needs it most. Seattle’s pitching staff should be good enough to stay in the playoff conversation, but if they continue to struggle as much as they have, it won’t be long before the boogeyman in Space City gets a hold of them for good.
