President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal remains one of the worst foreign policy blunders in American history, but now we have a new opportunity to fix it.
President Joe Biden should not miss the opportunity to end his presidency with a major security win while supporting Vice President Kamala Harris in setting a public course for a more peaceful and stable Middle East.
Multilateral in 2015Joint Comprehensive Plan of ActionThe Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had blocked all paths to Iran’s nuclear program, has slowly collapsed following President Trump’s unilateral abandonment, with total damage to both the United States and regional security. This has not only triggered a completely predictable (and foreseeable) expansion of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities, but also strengthened the political fortunes of Iranian hardliners who had warned that the United States would not abide by the agreement.
DestabilizationattackAttacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies have surged across the region, including against U.S. forces. In Iran, the government of Hassan Rouhani, who negotiated the JCPOA, has been replaced by the conservative government of Ebrahim Raisi, which has intensified its repression of civil society,Women, life and freedom“A movement sparked by the death of Mahasa Amini in the custody of the morality police.”
This chain reaction began under the Trump administration, but President Biden saw an opportunity early in his administration to revive the JCPOA and ease the constraints on Iran’s nuclear program. Biden was advised by countless outside experts to immediately reverse Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement and diplomatically ease tensions with Iran. As a candidate, Biden made it clearpromisedTo do so.
But since taking office, the Biden administration has hesitated, delayed, and in many cases continued and even expanded its predecessor’s disastrous approach to diplomacy. Not only have the sanctions imposed by Trump in violation of the Iran nuclear deal remained in place, but they have been amended to include new ones. Increasedfurther strengthening the support of hardliners, while the administration’s lack of diplomatic urgency meant time was running out for negotiations with more cooperative partners in Rouhani’s reformist government.
Negotiations continued after Raisi replaced Rouhani in August 2021, with Raisi criticizing Rouhani for his naivety in agreeing to the deal in the first place, but the window of opportunity to quickly restore it closed.
RicedeathThe helicopter crash and the unexpected election of reformist Massoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s next president have paved the way for a new agreement to restore some of the JCPOA’s most important elements.SupporterThe door was opened in November 2016 for diplomacy to restore the sanctions relief measures that Iran adopted when the 2015 Iran nuclear deal came into effect.
This gives President Biden an unexpected but fortunately timed opportunity to advance U.S. and regional security during the remainder of his term by seeking to peacefully limit Iran’s nuclear activities while easing tensions between the two countries.
The benefits of restoring diplomacy are especially clear when contrasted with Trump’s track record of maintaining and expanding his disastrous “maximum pressure” policy and toughening sanctions, an approach that not only failed to stop Iran’s aggression but actually encouraged it.We’re closer to nuclear weapons than we’ve ever been beforeAt the same time, it has stepped up destabilizing actions, such as supporting Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel, assisting the Houthis in attacking U.S. ships in the Red Sea, and supporting Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.
Resuming diplomacy on the nuclear issue, and perhaps beyond, would offer a way to avoid an escalation of multiple but related conflicts in the region.
Indeed, the Biden administration’s deft cooperation with countries close to Iran has provided a proof-of-concept for diplomacy in the current highly volatile environment.Mid-AprilIt would prevent the outbreak of all-out war between Iran and Israel and stage a face-saving response to unprecedented direct hostilities between the two countries. Going through the door to dialogue opened by Pezechkian could advance the United States’ oft-stated objective of de-escalation and preventing a potentially costly and bloody war.
It should be clear to the Biden administration that diplomacy has security policy advantages over continued escalation, but political considerations will also be evident as Vice President Harris adopts that approach in the upcoming election.SupportedA majority of Americans supported the agreement when it was first put into effect, and support grew even more when President Trump withdrew from it.fewMore than one in three Americans.
The outbreak of the Gaza war and subsequent Iranian attacks on Israel and US forces undoubtedly influenced US public opinion,investigationA survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Public Affairs a month before the Oct. 7 Hamas attack showed public support for renewing the Iran nuclear deal.
according tothe studyThe survey found that 63% of Americans, including 55% of Republicans, said the United States should join a deal that would lift some sanctions on Iran in exchange for placing strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program for at least 10 years.
The same survey found that 72% of Americans (76% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 65% of Republicans) support direct negotiations between the US and Iran, the highest support for any political party.
There are obvious hurdles to negotiating a worthwhile agreement in the Biden administration’s remaining term. Iran’s nuclear program isAdvancedSince President Trump violated the JCPOA, many of the agreement’s original terms are now inadequate or inapplicable.
But key elements of the original agreement remain, and their reinstatement, particularly the unprecedented permanent inspections and monitoring to prevent weaponization, would be a major security win.
But perhaps the biggest obstacle is the belief among Iran and the rest of the world that any agreements, or negotiating progress, reached under President Biden would be rejected again if President Trump returns to office.
While the outcome of the US presidential election will not be determined by whether a deal with Iran is reached, if one is pursued and largely finalized in the coming months, it will help motivate and clarify the choice among US voters, particularly independents and Democrats who overwhelmingly or supermajorities supported the JCPOA.
The Biden administration has had fewer notable accomplishments in the Middle East than in other areas, so this is an opportunity to promote security and de-escalation that it would be unwise to squander.
Dylan Williams is vice president for government relations at the Center for International Policy. Follow him on Twitter: @dylanotes
