Bam Adebayo is one of the best two-way players in basketball. For every season from 2019 to 2023, Adebayo has an estimated offensive and defensive plus-minus ofDunk and Three).
But considering the Miami Heat have been just as idle as their Eastern Conference contemporaries; Became stronger (In other words, New York Knicks And that Philadelphia 76ers), they’re going to need Adebayo to step up if they want to keep up the pace.
Adebayo’s Recent Performance His performance against Team Serbia during the Olympic games has some predicting his development path: developing into a bona fide stretch big.
Given how he finished last season and what he’s doing now, 2024-25 could be the season where Bam becomes a true stretch big.
— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) July 17, 2024
Adebayo isn’t an inside scorer like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Anthony Davis (he was in the 32nd percentile in ring frequency among big men last year, according to Cleaning the Glass), so adding a consistent 3-point shot is a great way to increase his scoring output without sacrificing his efficiency. Floor spacing That’s something the Heat team desperately needs.
But how feasible is it for Adebayo to become a true stretch big man?
What does it mean to be a true stretch big man?
A stretch big man is a center who can make enough three-pointers on the perimeter to make defenses pay attention when he’s spaced out on the perimeter. A 45% three-point percentage means very little if you only take one three-pointer per game. The same goes for a player who takes nine three-pointers per game and only makes 25% of them (though I doubt any coach would want him to take that many).
Why Bam Adebayo is a stretch big man
I’m by no means an expert marksman, but most good shooters have two things: good touch and a quick release.
Last season, Adebayo made 35.7% of his 42 three-point attempts, which isn’t a very large sample size to draw insight from. But you can generally get a feel for a player by looking at their mid-range and free throw percentages, and Adebayo has had multiple seasons where he has demonstrated his ability in those two areas.
Not only is Adebayo making mid-range jump shots and free throws at an above-average rate for his position, he’s also making them at an elite level.
Adebayo clearly has a flawless touch. The problem is, his release speed isn’t all that appealing. In this montage, which may not mean much unless you watch other players, notice how long it takes Adebayo to take the catch-and-shoot three-pointer and how much his shot drops.
This extreme drop-off is a big reason why Adebayo only attempted 0.6 three-pointers per 75 possessions (7th percentile).
A look back at history
To get a better understanding of Adebayo’s potential to develop into a stretch big man, we’ll compare his metrics to other players who weren’t initially a threat from the outside but later developed into legitimate/passable stretch big men.
Brook Lopez
Perhaps the most famous example of a non-shooter turned stretch big is Brook Lopez, who took just 31 total three-point shots over the first eight seasons of his career but took 2,651 over the next eight seasons.
Lopez always displayed great touch even before he started knocking down 3-pointers at a blazing rate. In 2015-16, his final season before his transformation, Lopez was in the 90th percentile in mid-range frequency and 87th percentile in mid-range efficiency.
In terms of release speed, Lopez’s current release (first clip in montage below) is much faster than Adebayo’s, as evidenced by his huge advantage in 3-point volume (63rd percentile in 3-point attempts per 75 minutes last year), but the biggest concern for Adebayo here is that Lopez’s release has been significantly faster since before he became a true stretch big (second clip).
As we’ll soon see, a recurring theme is that it’s extremely difficult to change your release velocity over the course of your career, at least for a center.
Al Horford
The only other example of a self-made stretch big man as well-known as Lopez is Al Horford, who attempted slightly more 3-pointers than Lopez (65) in his first eight seasons, though Horford, of course, broke that total with 2,210 3-pointers in his final nine seasons.
Like Lopez and Adebayo, Horford showed impressive touch from the mid-range and at the free throw line before he started shooting 3-pointers. And like Lopez (but not Adebayo), Horford was nearly as capable of catch-and-shoot jump shots even before he was labeled a stretch big, as shown in the clip below from the 2014-15 season.
(Sidebar 1: Despite his age, Horford is still Very early release.
Larry Nance Jr.
Larry Nance Jr. doesn’t have the same reputation as a spacer as Lopez or Horford. He shot 41.5% from three-point range last season, a big improvement from his rookie season of 10%, but his success rate was mediocre (14th percentile in three-point attempts per 75 minutes). Furthermore, Nance hasn’t shown the same mid-range/free-throw shooting talent as the other three players we’ve covered so far. Of him, Adebayo, Lopez and Horford, only Nance has a career free-throw success rate below 70% (69.6%). On the stretch big man spectrum, he’s closer to “decent” than “bona fide.”
That being said, Nance, like Lopez and Horford, has always made the case for a quick dismissal, but he has fallen off more than either Lopez or Horford.
Wendell Carter Jr.
Wendell Carter Jr. never shot better than 30% from three-point range until his fourth season in the NBA. But he was a solid 37.4% 3-point shooter last year (40th percentile for 3-pointers per 75 yards). His touch is also nothing to write home about. Carter has been below league average on the mid-range jump shot in three of his six NBA seasons (including the 2022-23 season).
His release speed is most similar to Adebayo’s – it has a noticeable drop off and is slow. Below are examples of it now (first clip in the montage below) and before he emerged as a shooter (second clip).
(Side note: I also studied the jump shots of Myles Turner and Jaylin Williams, and both of them consistently had quick releases and very little dip.)
Conclusion
So what do all these numbers and historical analysis mean for Adebayo’s chances?
Here, we focused on two players who went from zero spacers to elite spacers at their positions (Lopez and Horford) and two who went from self-checking to solid stretch centers (Nance and Carter).
Even before their evolution, Lopez and Horford always boasted great touch, quick releases and little drop off on their jump shots, and while Adebayo may have the initial traits, his shooting mechanics are lacking in two other areas, making it hard to imagine him becoming an elite stretch big.
Nance doesn’t have Adebayo’s touch and the ball drops a lot when he takes three-pointers, but his release is noticeably quicker than Adebayo’s and that still makes him less effective as a stretch center.
The best role model for Adebayo on this journey has been Carter, and while Adebayo has the more proven touch, both players suffer from similar mechanical flaws.
Ultimately, if Adebayo is going to be a stretch big, it will likely be as a Carter-type spacer, which doesn’t change the floor spacing that much.look It’s clear how weak the Orlando Magic’s offense is when Carter is on the court, so putting him next to other less-than-perfect spacers is still less than ideal, but surrounding him with four good spacers could open up the basketball court quite a bit.
(Note: If you’re wondering why I only looked at players currently in the league in this study, it’s because before the era of pace and space, it was very rare for a center who wasn’t a good shooter when they entered the league to become a prolific 3-point shooter.)
