With President Biden dropping out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris taking the lead, the race’s trajectory is now in doubt and battlefield strategy may change.
Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump nationally in the Real Clear Politics polling average and in seven key battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — but a look at the underlying data could shed light on what Harris would do to change that.
Polls show Biden is doing well among older, white, working-class voters but he has begun to lose support among black and Hispanic voters, key demographics for Democrats, while Harris has recently outperformed Biden among black voters, suggesting she has room to close the gap on Trump in a close election.
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With President Biden dropping out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris taking the lead, the outcome of the race has been thrown into doubt. (Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images)
A Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted last month found that Harris had a 67% favorable rating among black voters, with 23% saying they had an unfavorable view of the vice president, while 63% said they had an unfavorable view of Biden and 31% said they had an unfavorable view of the president.
An NBC News poll conducted earlier this month showed similar results when comparing Biden and Harris against Trump, with Biden leading Trump by 57 points among black voters, 69% to 12%, while Harris led the former president by 64 points, 78% to 14%.
When Biden was still on the campaign trail, the battleground states were heavily focused on “blue wall” states in the upper Midwest, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but Harris has strong support among black voters, and the vice president may look to the South, such as Georgia and North Carolina, for an opportunity to close the gap.
When Biden was still on the campaign trail, most of the battleground states were so-called “blue wall” states, but Harris’s strong support among black voters could lead the vice president to turn to the South as an opportunity to close the gap. (Fox News)
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According to 2020 census data, Georgia and North Carolina have much larger Black populations, at 31% and 20.5%, respectively, than Michigan (13.7%), Pennsylvania (10.9%) and Wisconsin (6.4%). Meanwhile, those upper Midwestern states have high shares of older white voters, a demographic where Biden outperformed Harris.
Polling on the Trump-Harris matchup has been scant so far, especially in battleground states, but there are some signs that Harris may seek support in the South. A poll conducted Tuesday by Landmark Communications showed Trump holding a slim 1-point lead over Harris in Georgia, smaller than most polls so far have shown Trump enjoying in the matchup against Biden.
There has been little polling so far on the Trump-Harris matchup, especially in battleground states. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
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Winning both Georgia and North Carolina probably wouldn’t be enough for Harris to win, but if she could bring them into her camp, it would open up some more realistic paths to victory. Without a win in both states, Harris would likely need to win all five other battleground states to secure the 270 electoral votes.
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to Fox News’ request for comment.
