This marks the third time in the past five seasons that a Super Bowl champion has come from the AFC West, but each time it’s been the same team: the Kansas City Chiefs.
Sportsbooks are predicting roughly the same outcome for Kansas City this season, setting them at 11.5 wins and slightly favoring the over.
Additionally, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected to finish second in the division, while Denver and Las Vegas are projected to finish last.
Can the Chargers, Broncos and Raiders compete with the Chiefs this season, or can we hope for Patrick Mahomes and company to win the division again?
Below, we present our AFC West preview and best bets, including current win numbers and odds from DraftKings.
Broncos: 5.5 wins (+105/-125)
Coach Sean Payton has complete autonomy, which was made abundantly clear when he and the Broncos selected former Oregon star Bo Nix to replace Russell Wilson under center.
Payton compared Nicks to Drew Brees, who coached him in New Orleans, and while both are a bit undersized for their positions, they have similar qualities.
Assuming the Knicks are the starters from Day 1, there will be some growing pains, especially since Denver dealt Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for late draft picks.
The Broncos still have Courtland Sutton and signed Josh Reynolds, but overall the supporting cast doesn’t have enough talent to produce an above-average offensive output.
Denver’s defense was ranked 31st by PFF last season, 27th in points allowed per game and 29th in yards allowed, and the defense was awful, so much so that the Broncos did virtually nothing to improve it in the draft or free agency.
Chargers: 8.5 wins (-155/+130)
Welcome to the Jim Harbaugh era in Los Angeles.
After winning a national championship at the University of Michigan, Harbaugh chose to return to the NFL, where he enjoyed success including leading the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2012 and three consecutive NFC Championship Game appearances from 2011-2014.
With Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all gone, things might get a little tougher for Justin Herbert, but rookie offensive tackle Joe Alt from Notre Dame should give him more time in the pocket.
Los Angeles acquired Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, but Dobbins only played in nine games following the 2020 season, so his health will be paramount to the offense.
Retaining Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack would also be huge for the Chargers defense, which was a major disappointment last season but is expected to improve under new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.
Chiefs: 11.5 wins (-115/-105)
By recent standards, the Chiefs had a disappointing regular season, winning just 11 games, but they thrived in the postseason.
Ironically, even with Mahomes, Isaiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce still around, the Chiefs’ offense struggled at times, ranking 15th in scoring and 12th in total offense per PFF.
But don’t expect the same complacency and mediocrity in 2024. The Chiefs have Mahomes, Pacheco, Kelce and (suspended) Rushes Rice back, they also signed Marquise Brown and drafted wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who ran a 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
Defensively, Kansas City prioritized DT Chris Jones, who has impressive inside power, meaning this high-octane offensive line should return to its previous form this season.
Raiders: 6.5 wins (-130/+110)
Despite Aidan O’Connell playing under center for 10 straight games, the Raiders won eight games in 2023. O’Connell and Gardner Minshew will compete for the QB1 spot in 2024, but it’s not as if either player can solve the obvious issues at the position.
Additionally, don’t be surprised if Davante Adams gets traded this year. Outside of Adams, the wide receiver position is relatively thin. There aren’t many tight ends to play right away, and rookie Brock Bowers won’t solve all the passing game’s problems.
Signing Christian Wilkins would boost the defense as he would form a formidable pairing with Maxx Crosby, but the secondary is one of the weaker units in the AFC.
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AFC West Best Bets
The Chargers have struggled with bad coaching for a long time, but that should change with Harbaugh taking over in 2024. The Chargers should also benefit from being projected to have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL.
The addition of Alt strengthens the offensive line, and even if the other skill positions are a bit thin, Herbert spending more time in the pocket can only mean good things for the team. I’d bet on the over at 8.5 wins.
Prediction: Chargers over 8.5 wins (-154, FanDuel)
