The prisoner exchange agreement between Russia, the United States and a number of other countries was the culmination of many years of intensive diplomacy.
But the White House on Thursday downplayed the possibility that the prisoner swap could lead to improved relations with Russia on a host of other international security issues, particularly over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
President Biden announced the prisoner swap on Thursday and was asked if the exchange could prompt dialogue with the Russian leader.
“There’s no need to talk to Putin,” he said.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan said negotiations over the detainees were a “separate path” from Russia’s diplomacy over Ukraine’s war and that Ukraine would take the lead in any diplomacy.
Sullivan added that while he had not directly negotiated with Putin about the prisoner swap, there had been extensive discussions with Russian officials.
“These channels are sensitive and need to be protected for this very reason. It is because of these sensitive channels that we are able to produce the results we have today,” he said.
Experts said it was too early to tell whether the success of the exchange marked the start of further diplomacy with Russia.
“I wouldn’t rule out the possibility, but there’s no logical connection,” said John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former ambassador to Ukraine.
“Given the overall state of relations between Russia and the West, I don’t expect anything to come of it, because for the situation to improve, Putin needs to stop aggressing in Ukraine.”
The prisoner swap included 16 people released from Russia and Belarus: three Americans, one US green card holder, five Germans, and seven Russians who had been political prisoners in their home countries. The swap also saw the release of eight Russians who had been held in the US, Germany, Poland, Norway, and Slovenia.
Alena Kutsko, vice president for policy and programs at the Slovakia-based think tank GLOBSEC, offered some insight into the minds of Putin and his key regional ally, Alexander Lukashenko, the longtime authoritarian leader of Belarus.
The prisoner swap “is the culmination of years of efforts on both sides and also reflects the willingness of both Russia and Belarus to test how far they can go in negotiations with the West,” she said.
“The impression is that the time is ripe and that the West will soon be ready to talk about many things other than prisoners. Minsk is certainly trying to explore whether concessions on prisoners can be exchanged for concessions on sanctions and other measures.”
One key part of the deal appears to depend on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreeing to release from a Berlin prison convicted Russian assassin, Vadim Krasikov, a prisoner Putin has previously said would be the price for the release of the American.
“Their demands are [Russia] “The German government’s response to me was to demand that I extract significant concessions from Germany, which they concluded initially could not make because of the problematic individuals in the country,” Biden said in a White House speech.
Among the Germans released was Rico Krieger, who was sentenced to death on terrorism and other charges but was pardoned by Lukashenko just days ago, indicating a larger prisoner swap could be on the way.
Krieger is Arrested in Belarus According to the Viasna human rights group, Lukashenko plans to arrest Krieger on charges of “mercenary activities” in October 2023. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, an exiled Belarusian opposition leader, criticized Lukashenko for “staging” Krieger’s arrest and granting him an amnesty to “raise the stakes in the game of his Kremlin masters.” Post to X.
“It’s clear that a top priority for Putin is to free Russian political operatives from Western prisons, and Germany’s Krasikov plays a key role in this regard,” said the Atlantic Council’s Herbst.
Valery Kavalevski, a member of the Belarusian opposition government in exile and a former Belarusian diplomat, said the exchange showed Lukashenko’s ability to prove his usefulness to Putin and the West.
“From the beginning, there was the impression that Mr Lukashenko was being used by the Kremlin to put further pressure on Germany to extract Mr Krasikov,” he said.
Kavalewski said the releases showed results could be achieved between rival parties, and raised the issue of some 250 political prisoners in Belarus. Including Nobel Peace Prize winners Many of the sentences have been handed down since Lukashenko claimed victory in a 2020 election that was widely criticized as fraudulent.
“It’s another positive precedent for us that, even though relations between the parties are bad, people are actually reaching some solutions to these humanitarian problems,” said Kawalewski, who also serves as executive director of the Department of Euro-Atlantic Affairs.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also demonstrated his ability to be a key mediator between Western democracies and autocratic regimes, despite being a controversial figure within NATO and threatening to attack Israel over its war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Those released from Russia were flown to Turkey, where they changed planes to reunite with their families in the United States and Europe.
Erdogan has frustrated allies by maintaining ties with Moscow, repressing politics at home, aggressing in the Middle East and delaying NATO membership for Sweden and Finland to force political concessions. But the United States often praises Turkey for taking in millions of Syrian refugees and helping facilitate sensitive diplomatic moves like prisoner exchanges.
“Turkey has maintained a good relationship with Russia despite some things that have annoyed the Kremlin deeply,” Herbst said, “and just like Turkey has maintained a relationship with us despite some things that have annoyed us deeply. Turkey is an important player, and this proves once again that Turkey is an important player.”
Biden on Thursday praised Turkey for “making progress” on the agreement.
