Pollster Nate Silver on Thursday rated the presidential race as “50-50” but said Vice President Harris has instilled new enthusiasm among voters and the race is closer than when President Biden was in the lead.
in Online submissionSilver recalled previous articles arguing that even before Biden’s performance in the debates shocked Democrats into action, the race was not evenly split because Biden was underperforming in key battleground states.
“But now that the election is in Kamala mode, it’s not clear which side you want to take. I wouldn’t blame you if you want to bet on either Harris or Trump,” he wrote.
Silver argued that as of Thursday, Harris and former President Trump each had at least a 40% chance of winning the election, with Harris’ approval rating at 44.6% and Trump’s at 54.9%.
“It’s not exactly 50/50, but it’s close enough that poker players call it a ‘flip.’ The Democrats have the Ace and King suits and the Republicans have pocket jacks,” Silver said.
The FiveThirtyEight founder said Harris is performing well in battleground states, but the outcome is still uncertain: He gave her a 54% chance of winning Michigan, a 50% chance of winning Wisconsin and a 47% chance of winning Pennsylvania.
Harris has a 40% chance of winning Nevada, where she is outperforming Biden, and a one-in-three chance in Georgia and North Carolina, he added.
Still, Silver cautioned Democrats not to get too excited. His model takes into account the excitement generated by Harris’ emergence as the front-runner, but it could be “a temporary surge in Democratic enthusiasm.”
“Still, we’re not taking any chances here. The betting markets agree that the race is pretty much 50/50,” he said.
“While we don’t know who will win, we can say one thing with confidence: Democrats will be fortunate to have a second chance at the White House under Harris rather than Biden,” Silver concluded.
