Excitement and rumors are reaching a fever pitch just hours before Vice President Harris is expected to announce her running mate.
Harris and her running mate will soon be on a whirlwind tour of six of the seven states likely to decide the election. The first event on that itinerary is in Philadelphia on Tuesday, but the Harris campaign has denied that the stop is a precursor to her choosing Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate.
Harris campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz also denied reports that the candidate had made a choice late Monday afternoon.
“While I understand the excitement and interest here, VP Harris has not yet selected her running mate!” Munoz wrote on social media.
Of course, Harris could surprise the political world with an unexpected choice.
But the three front-runners — Shapiro, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona and Minnesota Gov. Tim Waltz — met with her at her home in Washington on Sunday.
Other rumored contenders include Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Below is a guide to the current state of the vice presidential election and the odds of the top candidates winning.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
The criticism from progressive Democrats does not negate the only big factor in Shapiro’s favor: his popularity in his home state, which will be the biggest battleground in November’s election.
Shapiro defeated Republican Doug Mastriano, who was endorsed by former President Trump, by 15 points in the gubernatorial race just under two years ago.
A poll commissioned by The Hill from Emerson College late last month found Shapiro with 49% of Pennsylvanians approving of him, and just 31% disapproving.
If the Harris-Shapiro team wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, it will be a big step towards taking the White House.
Shapiro’s biggest weakness has been his comments on the Gaza conflict, where he has compared pro-Palestinian protesters to the Ku Klux Klan.
If Harris picks Shapiro, it would end her political honeymoon amid criticism from progressives, but the potential gains in Pennsylvania may be too big to ignore.
Hill’s odds: 50-50.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz
Walz is a prime example of this year’s vice presidential candidates having years of experience in politics but who have jumped on the bandwagon and become overnight celebrities.
The Minnesota governor, who has served six terms in Congress, has been fiercely attacking Republicans and inciting Democrats since President Biden announced he was leaving office.
In particular, his condemnation of the Republican Party in the Trump era as “just weird” resonated with liberal voters.
The Minnesota governor’s basic appeal is that he’s a bluff Midwestern country boy who could be a powerful presence on a campaign trail.
He clearly has the support of the party’s progressive wing, is more sympathetic to pro-Palestinian protesters than Shapiro, and has a history of being a vocal advocate for voting and reproductive rights.
But the left’s enthusiasm for him could backfire in some ways if Harris supports someone who appeals primarily to moderate voters.
Hill odds: 2-1
Senator Mark Kelly (Arizona)
By Monday, rumors were circulating in Washington and within the Democratic Party that Mr. Kerry’s popularity might be waning.
But conventional wisdom in Washington is often wrong.
The pro-Kerry case has three main prongs.
First, he comes from a battleground state, but he only got 11 electoral votes to Pennsylvania’s 19.
Second, Harris supports tougher border policies than many of her party’s other candidates, which could help alleviate some of her key weaknesses.
Third, he has a fascinating background as a former Navy pilot and astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.), who was seriously injured in a 2011 shooting.
But Kelly has faced resistance from labor unions, in part because of his reluctance to co-sponsor the Protect the Right to Organize Act.
There are also concerns that Mr Kerry lacks the drive of other candidates.
Hill odds: 5-2
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
Beshear could emerge from the middle as an option that won’t draw too much animosity from either the progressive or centrist wings of the Democratic coalition.
Beshear’s greatest strength is his ability to win in heavily Republican states: He won reelection last year with 53% of the vote in a state that Biden lost by about 26 points.
Beshear is only 46, which makes the idea that the Democratic nominee would bring about a generational change even more pertinent in the absence of Biden, who is 81. Trump is 78 and Harris is 59.
But Beshear’s youth could work against him if there are concerns he’s still too immature.
Hill odds: 3-1
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
Buttigieg’s network of supporters is enthusiastically backing him for the post.
They point in particular to Buttigieg’s undoubted media skills: He has been particularly effective in conveying the Democratic message to Fox News, winning liberal fans in the process.
Buttigieg ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 and performed better than expected, but it was never expected he would actually win.
But Buttigieg did not receive much support from black voters during his campaign, and critics point out that Buttigieg, a former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has never been elected to statewide office or to Congress.
There’s another factor to consider: The demands of realpolitik might work against Harris, who is seeking to become the first black woman president, choosing a gay man as her running mate.
Hill odds: 5-1
