It is my custom this month to write a post entitled “Beware the 15th of August.” It is an interpretation of Shakespeare where Julius Caesar is warned to “Beware the 15th of March.” Mid-March meant disaster for Caesar. And over the years, I have found that August (often the midpoint) is one of the most dramatic, historic, and often volatile times in politics and government.
Richard Nixon resigned as president in August 1974. The US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Martin Luther King Jr. gave his “I Have a Dream” speech in August 1963. There were riots in Charlottesville, Virginia in August 2017. There was even an earthquake in Washington DC in August 2011. And it wasn’t the political kind.
Will August 2024 live up to expectations?
Journalist’s Note: A portrait of J.D. Vance’s hometown of Middletown, Ohio
July 2024 will feel like “August, hold on a minute.”
While August still has a long way to go, July earned a special place in the pantheon of unusual political months. President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 campaign following the shooting of former President Trump was unusual news. Then there was the political storm that hit the news cycle for nearly three straight weeks after Biden’s abysmal debate performance in late June. And we haven’t even mentioned the Republican convention in Milwaukee or Trump’s selection of Republican Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio as his running mate. These seismic shifts were significant enough. But none matched the sheer intensity of the assassination attempt on the former president coupled with Biden’s withdrawal.
A striking case study of the intensity of July’s news cycle occurred on July 24th, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was scheduled to deliver a controversial speech to a joint session of Congress. Bipartisan congressional leaders, mostly Republicans, had invited Netanyahu to address Congress for a record fourth time. But Netanyahu’s speech was temporarily taken a back seat to other events.
Former President Donald Trump was hit in the ear during an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024. US President Joe Biden addressed the nation on Wednesday, July 24, 2024, after making the historic decision to withdraw his reelection bid. (Getty Images)
Consider how the story changed throughout the day of July 24th.
At any other time, Prime Minister Netanyahu would have been headline news earlier that morning. But FBI Director Christopher Wray’s testimony before the House Judiciary Committee that morning temporarily overshadowed Netanyahu. Wray was already scheduled to appear before the committee before the Trump shooting. But the assassination attempt on the former president now dominates the nation’s news, especially after Wray appeared before the House committee to discuss the FBI’s investigation into the shooting.
Netanyahu was not scheduled to address a joint session of Congress until the afternoon. But his speech infuriated left-wing and many pro-Palestinian/anti-Israel protesters, who flooded the streets of Washington and clashed with police. They burned an American flag and raised a Palestinian flag in front of Union Station, a few blocks from the Capitol. Images of the dramatic nature and audacity of the protests were in the news for some time before Netanyahu’s speech.
Anti-Israel agitators break into Parliament building on eve of Netanyahu speech
Next came Netanyahu’s presentation to Congress. The news here was not the Israeli Prime Minister’s remarks themselves. However, several sub-angles highlighted the controversy of Netanyahu’s speech. Many Democrats boycotted the joint session. Vice President Harris, who serves as the Senate President, did not chair the session because she was speaking at a black sorority house in Indiana. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (R-Minn.), the highest-ranking Jewish member in the history of Congress, refused to shake hands with Netanyahu on the House floor. Netanyahu blasted the protesters near the Capitol, calling them “useful idiots” for Iran. Democrats who attended the speech lamented that Netanyahu did not present a plan to return the hostages and did not call for a ceasefire.
But by the end of the night, the Netanyahu talk had become a thing of the past.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint session of Congress in the House of Representatives chamber on the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC on July 24, 2024. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
President Biden is now healthy enough after his battle with COVID-19 to tell the nation about his momentous decision not to seek a second term. That’s right, the president formally told the nation through X on Sunday that he was stepping down. But addressing the nation nationally is another level.
Buried in all of this was the fact that Harris quickly garnered support from Democratic delegates and congressional Democrats to surrogate for Biden, but that didn’t bother them. The public was trying to figure out who Harris was as a person and how she compared to former President Trump. This included deep dives into Vance and his policy positions, as well as an examination of his 2016 book, “Hillbilly Elegy.”
Why Democratic concerns about Biden calmed for a few days
A lot of things happened.
So August, be careful, you have a lot of expectations to live up to.
None of us in politics or the media want another hellish news cycle.
That’s true. The Democratic National Convention is coming up in Chicago at the end of August. Harris just picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) as her running mate. There’s a lot to think about. But these events don’t seem as dynamic as we worked them out to be in July.
Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic vice presidential candidate and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz appear onstage together during a campaign event at Girard College in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on August 6, 2024. (Andrew Harnick/Getty Images)
That’s not to say there won’t be other big events this month. The Middle East is heating up. There are serious concerns of a conflagration engulfing the entire region. The possibility of hostility between China and Taiwan is always a worry. New big political stories may emerge regarding former President Trump, Harris, Vance, or Waltz. Biden is still the president, and there are many questions about his final months in office. And there are unknowns. August has a tendency to surprise people with historic events and episodes that come out of nowhere and change the course of history.
In early August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the first Gulf War broke out a few months later. In late August 1983, the Soviet Union shot down a South Korean jetliner, killing one U.S. congressman and hundreds of others. Walz was a major political news story. But it was a shock when the 2008 Republican presidential candidate, the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), chose former Alaska governor Sarah Palin (R-Ariz.) as his running mate. Walz’s nomination paled in comparison to Palin’s selection. Never mind that the Republican convention that year was cut short by a hurricane; in 2006, Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast, forever changing the course of former President George W. Bush.
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So be careful on August 15th, and not just because it’s August.
But last month it was “Be careful on July 15th.”
