Don’t underestimate Kamala’s rise
of Kamalano Menon has been a big influence Regardless of how people view the economic outlook, you need to take a closer look at the data to know.
A survey conducted by YouGov found that economist In mid-July, they began asking Americans how they viewed their household’s economic outlook a year from now, a good sign given that most surveys of consumer sentiment are sluggish. Only 22% expect to be financially better off in a year’s time..
Another 35% said they expect their financial situation to remain roughly the same. 22% said the situation would get worse. And 22 percent said they didn’t know.
The latest survey, conducted August 4-6, showed only slight changes in these figures. 24% said they thought things would be better.20% expect the situation to get worse, 38% think the situation will remain the same, and 18% said they didn’t know.
Big, hidden partisan shift in economic optimism
However, the relative stability of the shares of pessimists and optimists is due to some The big difference between optimistic and pessimistic people.
A mid-July survey found that a third of people who said they would vote for Biden expect their households to be better off a year from now, while 44% of Biden supporters expect their households to be about the same. Only 10 percent expected the situation to get worse.
Among Trump supporters, 19% said they expected things to get better, while 28% predicted things would stay the same. 33% expect it to get worse.
A survey conducted a week later showed some movement. Trump supporters have become more positive about their future. Among Trump supporters, the percentage of those who expect their financial situation to improve rose to 24%, while the percentage who expect their financial situation to worsen fell 10 points to 22%.
The driver here is probably Biden’s chances of winning are declining Trump was gearing up for a second term when he eventually dropped out of the race and announced his support for Kamala Harris. A mid-July survey found that 91% of Trump supporters said they expected Trump to win the November election. By the third week of July, that figure had risen to 95%. Among the general public, the percentage who expected Trump to win rose from 49% to 52%.
Enthusiasm for Kamala Harris was growing among Democrats, but it had not yet filtered down to opinion among Trump supporters. Only 26% of voters expected Biden to win.This includes 63 percent of Biden supporters. By the third week of July, 31 percent of voters expected Harris to win, including 75 percent of those who self-identified as Harris supporters.
Two weeks ago, the general public Harris’ chances of winning rise to 40%Among Harris supporters, the percentage who expect their candidate to win has jumped to 80 percent. The percentage of voters who expect Donald Trump to win has fallen 10 points to 42 percent. Most notably, the percentage of supporters who expect Trump to win has fallen to 87 percent, an eight-point drop in one week.
The survey conducted in the last week of July included some changes to the question about household economic outlook, but not many. The percentage of Harris supporters who expect to be better off remained unchanged, while the percentage of those who expect to be better off remained unchanged. Trump supporters less likely to see the situation improve It rose 2 percentage points to 22 percent.
Harris takes the lead
The big change came in the latest polls. Harris now leads among voters who think she will win, 40% to Trump’s 38%. Among Harris supporters, 81% said they thought she would win.Among Trump supporters, 81% said they thought he would win.That’s down another six points from a week ago and down 14 points in the past week, narrowing the gap in political optimism that once existed between Trump supporters and his Democratic rivals.
The new survey found that Just 15% of Trump supporters expect to be better off.That’s a drop of 7 points. Forty percent of Harris supporters say things will be better in a year, up six points.
In other words, Harris gave her supporters not only confidence that she could win, but also confidence that her election would improve their household finances.Meanwhile, Trump supporters have lost confidence in their candidate’s prospects and their own economic future.
These big changes show how dramatically the presidential election has shifted in recent weeks. Volatility spikes The stock market goes up and down.
