Democratic enthusiasm ignores economic weakness
Growing optimism among Democrats about their prospects of retaining the White House could be dashed by the challenges of an economy widely seen as ailing and increasingly heading toward recession.
There’s no doubt Democrats are more confident in Kamala Harris’ chances of winning than Biden, according to a new YouGov poll. economist Found 81% of Harris supporters expect her to win In November, 76% of self-described liberals and 77% of those who identify as Democrats or leaning Democratic said the same thing.
As we detailed on Wednesday, this represents a significant increase in Democratic optimism compared to a few weeks ago. The survey, conducted July 12-16, found that: 63% of Biden supporters expect the president to be re-electedAmong Democrats and Democratic leaners, just 55% expected Biden to win, while 53% of self-described liberals expected Biden to win.
Trump supporters are moving in the opposite direction.But optimism has faded in recent weeks. In a mid-July survey, 91% of people who said they planned to vote for Trump also said they thought he would win. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, 86% said they expected Trump to win. Among conservatives, 83% said he would win.
The latest YouGov survey, conducted between August 4 and August 6, found that: Trump supporters’ predictions of victory fall 10 points to 81%Among Republicans and conservatives, approval also fell 10 points to 76%, and among conservatives the drop was even steeper, down 12 points to 71%.
In other words, Harris supporters’ trust increased and Trump supporters’ trust decreased. In terms of trust, the two are tied at 81 percent. When it comes to trust in their respective parties, they are essentially neck and neck. When it comes to ideology, liberals are slightly more confident than conservatives, which may not be surprising given that there are still a significant number of self-described conservatives in the US who have not gotten over their personal hostility towards Trump.
Far more Americans believe Trump will have a positive impact on their financial situation
Is this change in mood around the election justified? A quarterly CNBC National Economic Survey poll released Thursday said: Suggest That’s not the case. Trump is well ahead of Harris on economic issues.This is the most important issue for many voters.
Let’s start with the most important question of the election: Which candidate do you think will make you better off financially? According to a CNBC poll, Trump has a 2-to-1 lead. 40% of Americans say their lives would be better if Trump wins Twenty-one percent said they would be better off with Harris as president, while 35% said it wouldn’t be a problem or expected no change in the fiscal situation.
There are big partisan divides here: Republicans are much less likely than Democrats and Independents to say it doesn’t matter who wins. 17% of Republicans said they had no idea who would be president. Fifty-four percent of independents and 42% of Democrats said the bill would have a fiscal impact.
This is also an opportunity for the Trump campaign. Currently, a majority of independents say who wins the presidency has no impact on their finances. But that’s not because they don’t care about economic issues. According to a YouGov poll, 71% of independents rate the economy as a very important issue. And 27% say it’s somewhat important. Regarding inflation, 79% say it’s very important and 17% say it’s somewhat important.
26% of independents say inflation is the biggest problem.That number is similar to 32% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats, and 10% say jobs and the economy are the biggest issue, matching Republicans and making it the third most popular choice among independents after inflation and health care.
Trump already leads among independents on personal finance issues. 31% believe their lives would be better if Trump winsMeanwhile, only 10 percent said Harris would make them happier.
This suggests that Trump’s victory may depend on convincing more independents that the election really does affect their finances, something they care about very much, but for now… About half said it wouldn’t make a penny difference who won.
Seventy-nine percent of Republicans say their economic situation would be better if Trump won. Only 48% of Democrats say they would be better off economically if Harris won, compared with 42% who said it would make no difference. This suggests that Trump may encourage independents to perceive him as important to their economic situation. Harris can’t convince most Democrats that she’s good for them financially.she probably wouldn’t fare so well with an independent company.
Harris is strange when it comes to economics.
Harris is at a big disadvantage when it comes to campaigning on the economy. She is hamstrung by a constituency that doesn’t care as much about the economy as the rest of the country.Inflation is the top issue for self-described moderates and conservatives, with 27% and 29% saying it is the biggest problem, but among liberals it is second only to climate change (17%) and tied with abortion and health care at 14%.
Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a press conference at the Ella West Gallery in Durham, North Carolina, March 1, 2024. (Official White House Photo by Polly Irungu via Flickr)
Similarly, 10% of conservatives say the economy and jobs are their biggest challenge (ranked third behind inflation and immigration at 23%), and 10% of moderates say the same (tied with health care). But among liberals, Only 6% said jobs and the economy were most importantIssues like climate change, inflation, health care, abortion, civil rights and civil liberties have been pushed to the back burner.
In other words, The liberalse Strange When it comes to the issues they care about most, they are much less likely than moderates and conservatives to be primarily concerned about inflation, jobs and the economy. As a result, Harris will likely find it difficult to build a campaign around jobs, inflation and the economy, even if she has the votes.
Democrats are no doubt excited about Harris’ nomination, but her weakness on fundamental economic issues is a stark reminder that she is a strong candidate for the Democratic Party. this is Irrational enthusiasm.
