My college history professor used to shout out a favorite Winston Churchill quote, lest we ever forget: “Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” This quote comes to mind now, as American voters will soon elect a new president and the events of January 6, 2021, have been largely forgotten.
of The Wall Street Journal I recently interviewed a representative group of first-time college students between the ages of 18 and 21 about the issues that will influence their presidential choice. Not a single student mentioned January 6th or the associated threats to democracy.
Thankfully, a January 2024 Washington Post poll found that: 55 percent Forty-five percent of Americans believe that January 6 was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, while the other 45% have either forgotten or are justifying why the 2024 Republican presidential candidate was indicted last August on charges of plotting to stay in power after being soundly rejected by voters in the 2020 election.
The then-president’s meticulous planning allegedly inspired an army of Trump supporters to orchestrate a violent attack on the U.S. Capitol. Trump has successfully stalled appeals and lawsuits and has yet to be held accountable, leaving voters to decide in November.
The reason America became great again every four years since our founding is because a peaceful transition of presidential power was the norm and expected. 1788 Our nation has elected a president every four years, in wartime and peacetime, and on Inauguration Day, every elected official has placed his hand on the Bible and sworn allegiance to the Constitution.
While Biden’s inauguration was ultimately peaceful, the heavy military presence across Washington reflected the nation under siege since January 6th.
Six months from now, the country should be beginning a new trend of peaceful transfers. But if Trump loses, President Biden says he’s “not confident about that trend.” Here are four signs that January 2025 could be a sign of chaos.
First, there is the dangerous expectation that if Trump loses, the election was rigged or stolen. I have received countless emails, texts, and social media messages from the Trump campaign and pro-Trump groups warning me to “donate now” because Democrats are trying to steal the election. Trump supporters believe that only Trump can “save America” and therefore that he cannot lose through any fault of his own. Thus, the prospect of another “stolen” election is a fundraising bonanza and will sow the seeds of political instability at the inauguration.
Secondly, Interview at the Republican National ConventionTrump campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita said of his boss: “It’s not over until he puts his hand on the Bible and takes the oath. It’s not over until then. It’s not over on Election Day, it’s over on Inauguration Day, because everybody thinks that could happen.”
LaCivita is gearing up for a grand campaign rally, bluntly warning that he will only accept the results if Trump wins — a line Trump has made himself — which would be any Founding Father’s worst nightmare, since the transfer of presidential power requires compliance with the will of the people.
It’s immoral and un-American to assume without evidence that the opposing team will cheat and steal the presidency from your candidate. But LaCivita’s message barely made any political waves. Even just 20 years ago, such a statement by a major party’s presidential campaign manager would have infuriated the candidate and the public, and led to the candidate being removed from office.
Third, on July 29, Trump was interviewed by Fox News host Laura Ingraham. She asked him about remarks he made at a rally for Christian voters that could be interpreted as authoritarian, about eliminating the need to vote. Trump told Christians, “You have to vote on November 5th, and after that you don’t have to worry about voting anymore. I don’t care, because we’re going to fix this country. The country is going to be fixed…”
In response to this bullish stance, Ingraham asked Trump, “But will you be leaving office in four years?” Trump replied, “Of course. And by the way, he did that last time. We’ve heard it time and time again that he’s not going to leave office. He’s not going to leave office. Look, they’re the ones that are a threat to democracy.”
Who are “them”? Imagine again a pre-Trump presidential election. If either candidate had called the other a “threat to democracy,” voters and the media would have been outraged. Moreover, the irony of Trump denounce his opponents (“them”) as “threats to democracy” after being indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 election results proves that Trump is adept at projecting his own actions onto others. If Trump loses, this does not bode well for a peaceful transfer of power.
Fourth, both parties have avoided mentioning January 6th in their 2024 election ads. Has January 6th become a norm, burned into the electoral heavens? Voters seem to be moving on, which may explain why Trump announced he would “pardon the J-6 hostages.”
The delays to the trial and the Supreme Court’s inexplicable decision in July granting presidential immunity have allowed Trump to portray himself and the January 6 attackers as victims amid Republican celebrations. Moreover, the justices have downplayed the significance of January 6, which could jeopardize the transition to a new administration.
Win or lose, Kamala Harris will be the star of the show on January 6, 2025. As vice president, she will certify the Electoral College and elect either herself or Trump as president. If Trump is elected president, the guardrails for the presidency will be removed, thanks to Supreme Court rulings that make almost every act an official act. Democracy is fragile, so voters should beware. “Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
Myra AdamsHe was a member of the creative teams for two Republican presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.
