Recent polls have suggested that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates could pose a threat to Donald Trump now that President Biden is no longer the front-runner.
For months, polls predicting a three-way race between Trump, Biden and Kennedy have offered mixed signals about which major-party candidate would be hurt more by the presence of independents, but it’s often the Democrats who suffer the biggest losses in support.
But things have changed significantly since Vice President Harris replaced Biden at the top of the list of candidates, and many polls have shown Biden performing better when other candidates are in the race.
“In the head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump, it seemed like that head-to-head was pretty much a lock, but third parties were an issue for Democrats,” said Democratic strategist John Reinisch. “If the data is to be believed, and it appears to be credible, that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.”
After briefly running against Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination in October last year, Kennedy ran as an independent, adding further uncertainty to the presidential election.
A scion of one of the most famous families in American politics, Kennedy’s relative name recognition sets him apart from typical third-party candidates, such as Libertarian or Green Party candidates, who typically receive only a few percentage points of the vote in a typical election.
For months, Kennedy had polled in the low double digits at best but still performed significantly better than any other third-party candidate, raising concerns on both sides that he could be an obstacle to either Trump or Biden.
Polls vary and state by state as to which candidate has been hurt more by Kennedy’s entry into the race, but overall Biden appears to be at least slightly worse off.
The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill national average showed Trump in a slightly better position in a three-way matchup with Biden than in a solo contest: As of July 21, when Biden withdrew, Trump was leading in the head-to-head contest by 3.3 points, but by 4 points when Kennedy was also taken into account.
That has changed since Ms. Harris entered the race and has been gaining momentum in the polls, significantly closing the gap between her and Mr. Trump and in some cases even leading.
The two are nearly tied, with Trump leading by 0.2 percentage points in the national average from DDHQ and The Hill as of Friday, but in three-way races where Kennedy is averaging just over 3 percent, Harris has a lead of about 3 points.
The averages in most of the key battleground states are similar.
Kennedy, who has so far remained a little-known figure due to his wide range of political views, has campaigned on causes likely to appeal to conservatives, such as questioning the effectiveness of vaccines and opposing online censorship.
But his name and the fact that he’s an environmental lawyer may help him appeal to disillusioned liberals. Shifted On the issue of climate change, he has moved to the right.
Strategists from both parties said Kennedy’s numbers, despite his increased access to the ballot in various states, may not ultimately be a big factor in deciding the election’s outcome. But they said polls showing Trump trailing Kennedy may be due more to Biden dropping out of the race than anything else.
Republican strategist Zachary Moyle said some of Kennedy’s support came from Democrats who were unhappy with Biden’s election and wanted to see a different candidate chosen — some of whom went back to voting Democrat in November’s presidential election.
“The moment a Democrat or Republican appeases the other side, that third-party candidate becomes a thorn in the side’s side, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in the polls right now,” he said.
Multiple polling organizations and individual states have shown that Harris’ support increases when there are two or more candidates in the race.
Some early polls taken shortly after Biden withdrew and Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee also showed a shift: One of the first national polls taken after Biden withdrew showed Harris leading by two points over Trump, while Kennedy had 8 percent, giving her a four-point lead.
An Emerson College/WHDH poll in New Hampshire, which some have begun to expect will see Republicans gain an advantage as Biden loses ground, showed Harris improving over Biden late last month with just a four-point lead, though the gap widens to seven points when third parties are included.
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Tuesday found that Harris had a nine-point lead among independents when she faced Trump, but that lead widened to 11 points in the six-way race.
A Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday in Wisconsin showed Trump leading Harris by one point, 50 percent to 49 percent, but Harris leading by two points in a race that included Kennedy, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Kennedy received 8 percent support, while other third parties received less than 1 percent.
“I think this race has shifted from anti-Trump to pro-Kamala, and that’s a really important shift, because the energy divide that existed before has pretty much disappeared,” said Basil Smickle, a Democratic strategist.
Opinion polls also show growing interest in the Democratic Party’s elections. Plan Vote in November express Confidence that the Democratic candidate can win.
Still, some polls suggest Harris could underperform in at least some cases against other candidates.
An AARP poll in Georgia showed Trump and Harris tied in a head-to-head race, but the former president had a 2-point lead when other candidates were included, and an Arizona poll taken shortly after Biden dropped out showed Trump’s lead in the state widening when other candidates were included.
Trump himself has expressed concern about Kennedy’s influence on the campaign, and the two had a telephone conversation at the start of the Republican convention last month that was later leaked.
The former president hinted at asking Kennedy to step down and support him, saying, “I would encourage you to do that. I think that would be a very good thing for you, a big thing, and we’re going to win.”
And on Friday, Trump slammed podcaster Joe Rogan for praising Kennedy, after Rogan later clarified that he wasn’t endorsing Kennedy, just offering praise.
Strategists said Biden’s departure gave hesitant Democrats the alternative they were looking for, eliminating the need to look for another candidate in November.
“Harris’ strength, while she was perceived as a terrible vice president, makes her much more acceptable to voters as a candidate than Joe Biden,” said Republican strategist Jason Cabell Law.
Law said Harris could still draw third-party protest votes to candidates to the left of the Democratic Party, such as independent Cornell West. Voters who are particularly upset by Harris’ stance on the Israel-Hamas war might turn to a candidate like West, but Harris might be able to win them over by being more open about her positions, he said.
But some question how much impact Kennedy will have on the November race, saying Law said Kennedy might “shave” a few points in one or two states, but that it wouldn’t affect the overall outcome of the race.
“I think someone like Ralph Nader or Jill Stein would have been a bigger risk than he is now,” he said.
Smickle believes Kennedy has a greater chance of damaging Trump than Biden, but said he doubts Kennedy will be able to attract potential Trump voters given recent reports about him, including his admission that he left a dead bear in Central Park a decade ago.
“i don’t think so [he] “I don’t think this troubling incident is going to have a significant impact on the vote for Trump anymore, and I certainly don’t think it’s going to be an issue for Kamala Harris either,” he said.
