For all the anger and venom that Kamala Harris and her allies have aimed at Donald Trump, her campaign is a lot like Trump’s, except Harris is nearly 20 years younger and knows when to rely on a teleprompter.
Would the campaign of a younger, more disciplined left-wing doppelganger be enough to beat Trump?
A bizarre last-minute running mate choice that pleases diehards, stubbornly rejects the establishment media, exudes fear and arrogance, and makes you wonder if the same person is running both campaigns. It’s odd that Trump and Harris have accused each other of being liars trying to subvert democracy. It may be the only thing they agree on.
Harris’s vice presidential selection process was strikingly similar to Trump’s, with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) a final dark horse who apparently wasn’t given sufficient vetting. “Stolen Courage” For him, the accusations matter, and the Harris campaign failed to see the disconnect between what the progressive left sees as legitimate protest and what many Americans see as rioting and destruction over George Floyd. A burnt and boarded-up building Minneapolis doesn’t have a good reputation.
But what’s most similar about the Trump campaign’s choice of J.D. Vance is that it’s a flawed political calculation. The Trump campaign’s push for a freshman senator from Ohio as if she’ll appeal to the entire “Midwest” is as foolish as the Harris campaign’s push for Waltz for the same purpose. Governors and senators rarely appeal beyond state lines, especially if their terms are short. Assuming all country bumpkins who are only a plane ride away are the same is exactly what an East Coast elite would think.
Worse, both picks ooze arrogance. Trump likely assumed he would win in November, and so he picked Vance as a nonthreatening, ultra-loyal figure who could become a kind of protégé. Riding the relief of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Harris has chosen herself as a nonthreatening, loyal figure whose appeal is that she won’t rile up the rowdy online parts of the Democratic base. After all, she thinks, she’s going to win, so why rock the boat? (By the way, both Vance and Waltz have poor voting records; Vance trailed all Republican candidates in Ohio in 2022, and Waltz lost votes in his reelection bid, which shouldn’t have happened.)
Over the past year, it has become clear that elections are decided by how much voters dislike the candidates fielded by the parties.
Trump Somehow moving forward in the early 40s His approval rating has been trending upward for several years, never reaching positive territory except shortly after he took office (the shortest presidential poll honeymoon in history). The real estate mogul won in 2016 because enough voters in enough states turned out for him. I hated Hillary Clinton even more..
Harris has also had negative approval ratings for many years, and her recent rise in approval ratings may simply be a result of relief with the far less popular President Biden gone, but her approval ratings remain negative. RealClearPolitics AverageIn the polls, the Democratic nominees are down an average of 4.7 percentage points as of this writing. Trump is doing even worse, down 8.1 points. Both are below 45 percent and would need to attract new voters to win. And neither seems interested in doing so.
If you look at the latest YouGov Poll Among registered voters, independents are split between Trump and Harris at 36 percent each, 13 percent are undecided, 9 percent are the unwanted candidate (a number that will likely decline), and 4 percent won’t vote at all. If we accept YouGov’s Harris-plus-two-point margin (which may be a bit of an overestimate given Harris’ momentum after Biden leaves office), a margin of 13 percentage points or more would be enough to swing the election.
Independents have made it clear for over a year that inflation is their top concern. In the same YouGov poll, 26% of independents cited inflation as their top concern, more than double the second-ranked concern, health care, and 79% said the issue was “very important.” Abortion was far behind, with 47% calling it “very important” (it wasn’t even in the top 10) and only 8% calling it their top concern.
But the ads and campaign rhetoric in Pennsylvania ignore inflation and barely mention jobs, health care or spending. Instead, Harris’ ads: Focus on abortion and Trump’s threat to democracy These are issues that resonate mostly with Democrats and liberals: For liberals, abortion is tied for the second most important issue with 14 percent, and tied for the third most important issue with 78 percent saying it is “very important.”
Harris and Waltz’s real focus is trolling Trump (as if that’s new ground). Their trolling gets a frenzied response from the Democratic base and the social media ecosystem. Like Trump, Harris She plays to the audienceIt’s like a pro-Trump, left-wing insult cartoon.
Of course, Trump is the same as always, still raging and pleasing his supporters. Trying out new ways to insultEverything I see from him in Pennsylvania Immigration and crime It has to do with immigration. Like Harris, he’s touting it to his base. For Republicans, immigration is second only to inflation, at 23%, 16 points ahead of independents. Conservatives call immigration “very important,” at 78%, 28 points higher than independents.
Linking immigration to crime rather than inflation was the Trump campaign’s biggest messaging misstep. Crime ranks pretty low on the importance scale, with only 2% of independents saying it’s the most important thing, and 57% saying it’s “very important” — a big drop due to inflation. Neither conservatives nor Republicans think crime is important, but 72% say it’s “very important,” 15 points higher than independents.
Trump’s failure to link immigration to inflation is a total political blunder — he should be fired from all media roles for this blunder.
The difference between the Harris campaign and the Trump campaign is that the Harris campaign has competent campaign staff, lets them do their jobs, and has the discipline to stick to a plan. TeleprompterIn contrast, Trump can’t get out of his own way. While Harris is trying to get out of her own way, Criticism The former president decided to make another post after not choosing Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as his running mate. Crazy rant.
Trump surprised his campaign staff by holding a surprise press conference. Pro-Life Maintaining a position (the worst thing you can do) A pointless fight Georgia Governor Brian Kemp The cave at the ABC debate, Bristles Questions and general information Ignore He focused on the minutiae rather than the major issues that mattered to voters. But at least he Free Advertisement For his Mar-a-Lago club.
With Trump studiously ignoring the bigger issues that are the weaknesses of the Biden-Harris administration, preferring to obsess and whine about his own quirky hobbies, Harris may be able to get away with an empty, narrow-minded campaign. With a little discipline and a self-destructive Trump, that might be enough.
Keith NortonHe is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.
