President Biden received a round of gentle advice from CBS News’ Robert Costa over the weekend. He muttered as he answered. It was like an exit interview.
After his debate debacle at the end of June, Biden publicly and privately stated he would remain in the presidential race, and that it would take “Almighty God” telling him to step aside for him to leave. He said George Stephanopoulos, who held a press conference on July 11th in which he appeared to assuage concerns within his party, then 10 days later, in a letter he posted to his social media accounts, withdrew from the race.
In the end, no Almighty was needed — unless that’s the nickname Biden gave to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. While Pelosi was careful not to take too much credit for Biden’s withdrawal during her media tour for his new book, she did offer a little insight into the process to The New York Times’ Ezra Klein. Klein told She called the memo Biden sent to Democratic lawmakers announcing his intention to stay “un-Joe Biden,” suggesting she was pressured to send it, and made clear the only thing that matters is beating Trump.
As Biden told Costa, he ultimately dropped out of the race due to poor poll numbers, but if he’s not going to run for president, does he actually have the ability to be president now?
Pelosi and her fellow elite Democratic operatives waged a pressure campaign focused on reputational threats to force Biden out of the race, and they succeeded.
But they have a final move they can pull before Election Day: a “break the glass in case of an emergency” strategy: They could force Biden to resign and elevate Kamala Harris to the presidency, allowing her to run for office as the incumbent.
Now, this scenario might seem a bit far-fetched, but I’ve had quite a track record of predicting things in this column during the 2024 upheaval. In February, I explained how Democrats and the media could work together to throw Biden out of the race, and then I wrote specifically about how the debate could be the catalyst to put their plan into action. I also predicted that Trump would choose J.D. Vance as his running mate. (Not all of them have turned out to be winners: In January, I called 2024 a “Court TV election,” and the Trump-Hunter trial, while important, hasn’t been as dominant a storyline as was expected at the start of the year.)
Imagine it a few weeks after the Democratic National Convention, when Harris’s luster is starting to fade. The vibe campaign didn’t last long before reality set in: Trump and Harris are neck and neck, with Trump gaining popularity in several key battleground states.
“There is no reason to think that President Biden will step down unless he has absolutely no other choice,” said editor-in-chief and editor-in-chief 2WAY Host“He wants to run through the tape,” he told me. “Well, at least he wants to walk through the tape with a staggered but purposeful way.”
So perhaps Biden will be persuaded by the promise of a long, ceremonial celebration of his life and career when he leaves the White House. He could announce his resignation on September 1 and bury it before Labor Day weekend, or he could bury it after the ABC debate on September 13. He could give “two weeks notice” and have a long string of promotional articles and retirement pageantry.
“I think this is one of those things that could be used if something happens, but it’s impossible to predict a definitive outcome,” NewsNation’s Chris Styrewalt told me. “But it may not matter what Democrats want. If Biden continues to lack public support, he may be forced to resign. We could see a similar scenario to the one that unfolded in July.”
This would be especially useful for distracting from the race if Biden were to leave office in September or October. The mainstream media would be diverted by Biden’s departure and the next step: the inauguration of Kamala Harris as president. The flood of stories about the history surrounding the first female president and what this major transition will mean will allow for weeks of relatively empty coverage.
So what would Harris gain from being promoted to chief executive? First, she could run as an incumbent, something that has historically worked to the advantage of presidential candidates. Second, she could argue that she’s just getting started and needs a vote from the public to get the real work done.
And in the final weeks of the campaign in mid-to-late October, she could face a crisis, no matter how small, real or fake, that allows her to shine. She could prove herself in her new role as president and maintain that aptitude until Election Day. At her side is a docile Acela media full of partisan journalists who want to keep Trump out of the White House.
A last-minute presidential switch would benefit Democrats on two separate but related levels: It could give President Harris an advantage, even if only slightly, over Vice President Harris, which would not be a disadvantage, and it could be an advantage in what will likely be a very close election.
“She will undoubtedly make history as the first woman president of the United States,” Halperin told me, “and while voting for the incumbent will probably be more appealing to some voters, I don’t think the benefits are significant.”
But the latest chaotic development in the 2024 election cycle is a perfect distraction from the policy and substantive discussions and debates that will rage in the final weeks. What better way to mislead the public than to ensure that the talking points on people’s minds in the days leading up to November 5th are not the economy or immigration, but excitement over the last-minute inauguration of a new president?
So don’t be surprised if the “October surprise” of this election cycle is that we see a new face in the White House, even before January 20, 2025.
NewsNation contributor Steve Krakauer is the author of Uncovered: How the Media Got Cozy with Power, Abandoned Its Principles, and Lost the People and editor and host of the Fourth Watch newsletter and podcast.
