Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has been a surprisingly successful Democratic vice presidential candidate, despite Republican attacks on his record in office and in the military.
According to Decision Desk HQ’s average, Walz’s net favorability rating is plus five points, which stands out as many of the top politicians around him are leading the approval ratings.
Waltz’s Republican rival, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, has an average net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) of minus 9 points. Among the top presidential candidates, former President Trump is minus 10 points, while Vice President Harris has nearly equal favorability and unfavorability ratings. President Biden’s net favorability rating is in the red by 20 points.
Early polls suggest Waltz is unknown to many voters, but observers attribute his success in the popular vote to his down-to-earth persona in Harris’ newly invigorated race, while Vance has struggled to establish his own brand alongside the controversial Trump.
With less than 90 days until the election, Mr. Walz faces the challenge of maintaining his momentum, which political observers say he can do by capitalizing on his down-to-earth Midwestern persona, boosting his national profile and putting in a strong performance in the vice presidential debate in October.
Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin said of Walz that the former high school football coach is “in a good mood right now” in this “vibe election.”
“Waltz joins a list of candidates that is gaining momentum, so I think that’s really helped him get off to a very strong start. Also, his background is as a former high school teacher and coach, he’s a very down-to-earth guy,” Tulchin said.
Vance, meanwhile, had achieved some national recognition thanks to the success of his best-selling autobiography, “Hillbilly Elegy,” and its 2020 film adaptation, but he was virtually unknown outside the state before Walz debuted as Harris’ running mate.
According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll: In late July, before the announcement, 86 percent of American voters said they had no opinion or didn’t know anything about Minnesota’s governor.
NPR/PBS/Marist Poll The photo, taken just before Waltz’s debut, shows his noticeably lower name recognition than those of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (Democrat) and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (Democrat), who were considered the leading contenders for the vice presidential spot.
Despite this, Walz is a popular leader in Minnesota, ranking in the top 20 most popular governors in the nation in 2022. Morning Consult Poll In 2023, voters in each state It was on that list Although it didn’t make the Top 40, it still boasts high favorability scores.
Waltz began to surge at a national level of prominence in late July when he made headlines by calling the Trump-Vance race “bizarre,” a unique label he applied after Democrats had long denounced the race as an existential threat to democracy.
The governor’s easy-going style and his successful partnership with Harris are helping him translate his success in Minnesota into national support, observers say.
“It’s just kind of a joy for everyone who knew Tim Walz in Minnesota to now be able to introduce him to the nation and see that he and his style of politics and his outspokenness have really taken hold across the country,” said Tim Hogan, a Democratic strategist and former communications director for Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D) presidential campaign.
Walz has used his union background, experience as a teacher and Midwestern roots to “energize his base” in recent rallies with Harris and during his first few solo trips on the campaign trail, Hogan said.
That’s a “striking contrast” to Vance, Hogan argued. The Ohio senator Shared experiences growing up He is campaigning alongside Trump as he escaped poverty and drug addiction in his hometown of Middletown, Ohio, and has faced criticism from both sides over the story he recounts in his memoir.
Meanwhile, as Republicans dissected Walz’s record in office, Vance attacked Walz’s military record, accusing the Army National Guard veteran of “stolen heroism.”
“This is partly a contest: Tim Walz wants to raise his profile and present himself in an authentic way to millions of Americans, but he has to do it quickly to avoid being completely defined by the Republican Party,” said Abou Amara, a Minnesota lawyer and Democratic analyst.
According to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Friday, 39% of voters have a favorable view of Walz and 30% have an unfavorable view, meaning his net favorability rating is positive. The number 9.
Meanwhile, the poll found that 32 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Vance and 42 percent had an unfavorable view, giving him an overall score of minus 10.
Anne Economist/YouGov Poll A recent poll found that 44% of voters thought Walz would be suitable to be vice president, while 37% said the same about Vance.
The poll found that fewer than a quarter of voters believe Vance will improve Trump’s chances of winning in November, while 38% believe Waltz will improve Harris. Vice presidential picks tend to have a small impact on the outcome of presidential elections, but the unprecedented escalation of the Democratic nomination race has observers closely watching each party’s attack dogs.
Despite his growing name recognition, Walz is still new on the national stage and must get many Americans to recognize his name.
Anne Emerson College Poll The poll released Thursday found that about a quarter of voters still said they had never heard of the Minnesota governor, while just 12 percent said they had never heard of the Ohio senator.
“Waltz is still a novelty to Americans. Harris’ transition from vice president to candidate is still a novelty to many Americans. They’re not really paying attention and they’re still wondering who Harris is, let alone who Waltz is,” said Joshua Ulibarri, a Democratic pollster at Lake Research Partners.
Ulibarri attributes Walz’s polling success in part to his newness.
“A lot of it is just partisanship. They don’t know who Walz is, but they like him because he’s a Democrat and Harris picked him. And the Democratic base is very enthusiastic about Harris,” he said. “That works in Walz’s favor.”
That logic should also apply to Vance, Ulibarri added, but the Republican vice presidential nominee carries the burden of the top brass that Walz has avoided.
But Republican strategist Ford O’Connell downplayed Walz’s favorability numbers and encouraging polls showing Harris outperforming Trump in battleground states as a “honeymoon” moment for his campaign.
“At the end of the DNC we’re going to see the best numbers for Harris of her campaign, and then after Labor Day the honeymoon will be over,” O’Connell said.
Mr. Walz faces big stakes in the coming months: The Democratic National Convention kicks off in Chicago next week and the vice presidential debate is scheduled for Oct. 1. To maintain momentum, he’ll need to continue building his brand and reaching out to voters in “blue wall” states and beyond.
“This new climate of warmth and pragmatism, this energy of calling Republicans nutjobs, is going to last,” Ulibarri said of Walz, “and he’s going to move from being a new governor who’s different and not bad compared to the other two to someone who could be president.”
