Republican strategists expect Republican voters to come back on Election Day to support Senate candidates and lower-ranking Republican candidates in key states, despite current numbers showing Republican candidates at a disadvantage.
“A lot of people who voted for Trump just haven’t put on the Republican candidate’s jersey yet,” said one veteran Republican strategist.
However, these voters are expected to “go home” and cast their vote for the Republican Party.
In the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick fell behind Democratic Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania. New York Times/Siena College Poll Earlier this month, half of the state’s voters said they would vote for the incumbent Democrat, while just 36% said they would vote for McCormick.
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Republican strategists believe that Republican voters will “go home” and vote for their candidate on Election Day. (Getty Images)
“He’s got a bit of a name recognition problem,” the strategist said of McCormick, “he’s running against an incumbent candidate who is the son of a family that’s been in Pennsylvania politics for a very long time, and Casey doesn’t really come on the radar that often.”
His challenge, strategists say, is to “connect Casey with the less popular side of the national Democratic Party.”
But he expressed confidence in McCormick’s campaign skills and praised his campaign so far: “He’s run a great campaign,” he said, adding that the Republican also has all the money he needs to run a successful campaign.
“If he doesn’t win this race, it’s impossible to beat the incumbent,” said a veteran Republican strategist.
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McCormick is trying to unseat Casey. (Dave McCormick camp)
McCormick’s campaign declined to comment to Fox News Digital.
Wisconsin Republican candidate and businessman Eric Hovde also trailed Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) in a similar survey, but by a smaller margin.
“After 38 years in politics, Senator Baldwin has only let down the people of Wisconsin by giving his stamp of approval to the Biden-Harris Administration’s reckless spending and radical open border policies. Wisconsinites are waiting for change, and this fall we will hold Senator Baldwin accountable for decades of failure,” Hovde spokesman Zach Bannon said in a statement to Fox News Digital.
Republican candidates in Arizona and Nevada, Kali Lake and retired Army Capt. Sam Brown, are also considered underdogs by the top independent political handicapper. In addition to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada are rated as “Democrat-favorable.” Cook Political Report.
Brown’s campaign did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital for comment by publication time.
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Republican candidates Sam Brown, Bernie Moreno, Eric Hovde, Tim Sheehy and Dave McCormick (left to right) are challenging the vulnerable Democratic incumbent. (Getty Images)
According to a veteran Republican strategist, Lake, who ran unsuccessfully for Arizona governor in 2022, “has the same issues he had with Arizona moderates when he ran last time, and he’s working to win them back.”
Some Republican strategists have predicted that Trump would need to win in a landslide victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona to “lift” her, but that may be difficult since Trump won the state by less than 4 points in 2016 and lost it by less than 1 point in 2020.
Lake’s campaign did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment by publication.
The veteran strategist said the Senate races are expected to “play out similarly to the presidential elections,” especially given the significant decline in split-ballot voting in recent years. Among senators elected in the 2022 midterm elections, only one, Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, had a different outcome than her state’s presidential election. The other 34 Senate races followed the same path as their state’s presidential election.
Moreover, the strategist argued that as a result of the enthusiasm felt following President Biden’s campaign stop and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascension to the top of the shortlist, Democrats appear to have “put on the uniform,” or followed behind the party’s Senate nominees, relatively early in the election cycle.
Republican strategist David Cockell echoed this sentiment, saying, “To oust Biden would be [Democrats] What can be done to reverse their lackluster performance? There is a real enthusiasm to them that was missing throughout the campaign.”
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Democrats Jacky Rosen, Bob Casey, Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin (left to right) are fighting tough re-election battles. (Getty Images)
Part of the problem for these candidates may be former President Trump himself, according to Republican strategist Doug Heye. “Trump has a low bar,” Heye explained.
“Many Democrats were held back by Biden’s extremely low approval ratings even before he dropped out of the race,” he added.
But there may be more to it than that, argues Jim Kessler, a Democratic strategist and former senior aide to House Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. “The Republican Party is simply not appealing to a significant number of voters,” he says. “And that includes traditional party supporters.”
He argued that “traditional” members of the Republican Party have found many aspects of the party disappointing under Trump and are hopeful for a “return to ‘normalcy'” after his leadership ends. “But Republican Senate candidates had to kiss Trump’s ring to win the nomination, which turned off voters, and their performance has been disappointing,” he added.
“Dobbs is a real problem for the Republican Party. Women and young people are unhappy,” Kessler argued, suggesting that the overturning of Roe v. Wade will continue to haunt Republicans on election campaigns.
Republican strategist John Feeley said part of the Republicans’ struggles were due to the difficulty of fighting incumbents and “disorder at the top of the candidate ranks.”
He noted that Republican candidates have yet to launch many TV ads, which could give them a big boost.
Regarding the Montana Senate race, the veteran strategist said “a lot of Republicans are very confident” that former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy can beat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana.
But even the “close” elections in Montana and Ohio, both of which voted for Trump twice, are not guaranteed Republican victories. This is because the two weakest Democrats, Tester and [Sen. Sherrod] “Brown narrowly edged out the party line in Ohio and Montana,” Kocher said. “They’re really good politicians.”
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Tester is trying to fend off a Republican challenge from Sheehy. (Getty Images)
The campaigns of Sheehy and Ohio Republican candidate Bernie Moreno declined to comment to Fox News Digital.
Kessler added, “These battleground state Democrats have always performed better than standard Democrats because that’s the only way to win in the first place. They had to be exceptional candidates to win the first time around, and they’ve learned how to survive in order to stay in power.”
One race that has emerged as a big opportunity for Republicans is the Senate race in Michigan, a key battleground state where Democrats have lost a crucial advantage due to the retirement of incumbents. “From what I’ve seen, Michigan is extremely competitive,” argued a veteran Republican strategist.
A New York Times/Siena College poll found Republican candidate Mike Rogers, a former Congressman, had 42% support to his opponent, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), 41%, just one point behind.
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“The fact remains that Biden and Harris have drugged our economy with their outrageous spending, their policies have flooded our streets with drugs and criminals, and Slotkin has been with them every step of the way,” Rogers campaign spokesman Chris Gustafson said in a statement. “Michigan voters know that Mike Rogers has their back and will preserve the failures of the last four years.”
“The National Republican Senatorial Committee has hired a political outsider who is continuing to build his name recognition and seeks to close the gap on career Democratic politicians who have been in power for decades. Once Republican candidates begin advertising aggressively, we expect the horse race to see a significant drop in voter turnout,” Philip Letsow, a spokesman for the group, said in a statement.
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