Military experts suggested to Fox News Digital that with the US political future uncertain amid a hotly contested presidential election, it’s still quite possible that Iran could declare itself a nuclear power before the end of the year.
“I think that’s a realistic option,” said James Carafano, vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at the Heritage Foundation. “If I were an Iranian, I’d do it now, because Biden is not going to do anything.”
“Israel is at a standstill and has many months before Trump takes power if he wins. By that time nuclear energy will be well established and it is clear what will happen.”
“He’s not going to start World War III, is he?” Carafano added. “He’s not going to come and bomb Iran on Day One. He’s not going to do that, and they know it.”
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The Biden administration has repeatedly warned over the past year that Iran is on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken telling the Aspen Security Forum in July that Iran is “probably a week or two away from breaching the capability to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets with Iran’s Acting President Mohammed Mokbel and cabinet members at the Khomeini Husseiniya Mausoleum in Tehran, Iran, on July 7, 2024. (Iranian Leadership Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Blinken blamed Iran’s accelerated nuclear program on the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran nuclear deal, and stressed that at the time the US had seen no evidence that Iran already had a nuclear weapon, Barron’s reported.
“We are committed to not allowing Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, and we remain prepared to use the full power of our nation to ensure that outcome,” a State Department spokesman told Fox News Digital.
Carafano argued that the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential elections, particularly President Biden’s lame-duck status after he decided not to run for a second term, presents Iran with a significant opportunity.
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“It doesn’t matter if they can deploy nuclear weapons,” Carafano explained, “it just makes everybody panic as soon as they say it. They can say, ‘Okay, I’m now declaring myself a nuclear power. I’m going to defend myself with nuclear weapons.’ And of course, if they say that and people find out that they can actually defend themselves by carrying weapons, that makes it even worse.”
“When you’re a nuclear power, there’s this perception that there’s a force field around you, like the Starship Enterprise,” Carafano added. “Given the timing, will Israel attack? I mean, they’re kind of busy right now. What is Biden going to do? Biden is not going to do anything between now and the election and January, and even if Trump wins, it’s months before he’s even inaugurated.”
This photo shows a replica of Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant displayed at an exhibition at the International Conference on Nuclear Science and Technology in Isfahan on May 6, 2024. (Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Charles Moore agreed with Carafano’s assessment, calling it a “distinct possibility,” but noted that there are limits to the power of a nuclear capability declaration. “Declaring yourself a nuclear power is one thing, and actually being able to effectively deploy and use nuclear weapons is quite another,” he said.
“I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that after any ‘declaration’ by Iran, or during the final steps needed to effectively test a weapon and place it on a delivery vehicle, Israel or the United States would take action to prevent that,” Moore said.
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Carafano acknowledged that in the long term, possessing nuclear weapons serves only as a deterrent against other nuclear weapons. He cited the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and Russia’s recent aggression, including Ukraine’s rebuff of Moscow and its invasion of Russian territory this month, as examples.
“Nuclear weapons have very limited utility. It’s to actually deter nuclear war with other nuclear powers, but other than that… if you can’t win a conventional war, you don’t start a nuclear war,” he said. “It’s not a get-out-of-jail-free card for Iran. And… five seconds after they declare themselves a nuclear power, countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt want to become nuclear powers.”
This file photo released by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on November 5, 2019, shows centrifuges at the Natanzu uranium enrichment plant in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, via The Associated Press, File)
Behnam Ben Taleb, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said nuclear gradualism has “given way to significant nuclear advances made by Khamenei during Biden’s presidency,” and speculated that “it is entirely possible that these are gains that Iran would like to secure or exonerate if Trump is re-elected.”
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“Let’s not forget that Iran sought to create a nuclear fait accompli for the world even before nuclear weapons were discovered in 2002,” Talebr said. “The Iranian government pursued a crash program to build a small number of nuclear weapons in the hopes that it would gain both status and security.”
“Fundamentally, nuclear weaponization is a political decision, but it also involves a series of technical processes,” he added. “The decision to do either may be influenced, for better or worse, by Western policies.”
