DETROIT — Presidential candidates from both parties frequently visit battleground state Michigan, but the state’s status could disappear if it lends its 15 votes to the National Popular Vote Compact, as Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz did there last year.
The Compact is a voting pledge between states aimed at subverting the Electoral College, which has been used to select the president in the United States since the first presidential election, but the movement aims to overturn that tradition.
In 2024, there will be 538 electors divided among the 50 states and Washington DC. To win the presidential election, a majority of the electors, or 270 votes, is needed. The compact will go into effect when 270 states’ votes are signed. States that sign the compact will simultaneously vote for the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide, even if that candidate does not win in their state.
Donald Trump won Michigan by 10,000 votes in 2016. If Michigan was a national popular vote state and the compact had been in effect at the time, Hillary Clinton would have won all 16 of the state’s electoral votes.
In 48 states, including Michigan, the candidate with the most votes wins all of their electoral votes. Two states, Maine and Nebraska, allocate votes among districts, giving an extra vote to the candidate who wins statewide.
In all 50 states, the winning candidate would receive at least a majority of that state’s electoral votes. A nationwide popular vote would open the door to a loser-take-all system for the first time in American history.
I participated in a TV debate last year. Along with Michigan’s sponsor of the idea, Democratic state Rep. Carrie Rheingans.
When I pointed out that the national popular vote meant a candidate could lose all 7 million votes in Michigan and still win the state, Rheingans responded that never in the history of the Great Lakes state have all 7 million votes cast in one direction, denying the scenario but acknowledging the loser-take-all nature of the plan.
In Michigan, the agreement has been on hold since it was introduced in the House last year. In June of this year and June of last year, Reigans tried to raise attention to the bill before the summer recess. The issue has yet to come up for a vote.
A House Republican source familiar with the bill told The Post that if Democratic leaders want the bill to pass, it probably will, and because Democrats hold a 56-54 majority in the Michigan House, the lack of passage of the bill means the chamber doesn’t have a cohesive chamber, the source said, adding that no House Republicans are willing to cross party lines to pass the bill.
Republican state Rep. Jamie Green said Michigan should not join Minnesota in the compact, telling The Washington Post the proposal is “a despicable attempt to circumvent the Constitution and undermine electoral checks and balances.”
“By forcing Michigan to follow the decisions of other states, this plan would effectively take away voters’ choice in presidential elections,” Greene continued. “We should not follow Minnesota’s dangerous path of sacrificing our state’s interests to the whims of larger states.”
With all Michigan House seats up for election this November, legislative activity has been slow as lawmakers campaign to keep their seats.
Michigan Republicans are eager to retake the majority of their seats they lost in 2022. Republican sources warned that if they are successful, Democrats may mount a last-minute push to cut a deal.
“There are a lot of things they don’t have the political will to do now and might do in the lame-duck period if they lose their majority,” a source told The Post.
Last year, Minnesota pledged to cast 10 votes on the compact under Walz’s leadership, and this year Maine has pledged to cast its own four votes.
This means that if the compact goes into effect, Maine will no longer apportion its electoral votes by district, but rather all four districts will be awarded to the state with the most votes in the nation.
