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Democratic strategist Julian Epstein warned Democrats about what current polls are showing.
“If the polling margin of error is roughly the same as it was in 2016 and 2020, Trump is currently ahead,” Epstein said.
Vice President Kamala Harris' rise to the top of the Democratic field has given the party a boost in opinion polls, but some experts are not convinced by her new lead.
“If the polling margin of error is roughly what it was in 2016 and 2020, Trump is currently ahead,” Democratic strategist Julian Epstein told Fox News Digital.
The remarks come as a Real Clear Politics polling average shows Harris leading former President Trump by just 1.5 points nationally, a sharp shift from the three-point lead Trump had over Biden the day before the president dropped out of the race.
But Harris' lead is far smaller than the leads Trump enjoyed at the same time in 2016 and 2020. At the time, the Republican nominee trailed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 6 points and Biden by 7.1 points.
Though Trump won in 2016 and lost reelection in 2020, the former president significantly outperformed the polls in two close elections, a fact not lost on Democrats heading into the final battle in 2024.
Politico's report also makes it clear that even a major pro-Harris super PAC doesn't believe the current polls.
At the Democratic National Convention this week, some in the party's professional ranks are trying to temper their enthusiasm. An official at a major pro-Harris super PAC said their polling is “not as good” as the public's. Other Democratic pollsters have noted that even if their polling is correct, Trump still holds a large lead.
“It remains a very tight race, and that's consistent with everything we know,” said Margie Omero, a partner at GBAO Strategies, a Democratic polling firm.
There are plenty of warning signs hidden in the data. Polling commissioned by Navigator Research, a Democratic public relations firm, and released during the convention showed Ms Harris and Mr Trump essentially tied on the battleground state map. And on the candidate characteristics most correlated with voter preferences — whether the candidate is fit for the job, has the right vision and is a strong leader — the polls generally favored Mr Trump.
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