Unprecedented presidential blunders, assassination attempts, elevation of was widely ridiculed Vice President. Regularly invested Trump's tantrums Kamala Harris Abandon She has been unashamedly and promptly vocal about her progressive liberal policy positions thus far, and it's been a truly amazing summer.
But after the conventions of both parties, Strange Thanks to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., we now know where the presidential candidates stand heading into the final days of the campaign after Labor Day.
The main story is that Harris Saved the Democratic PartyEven before his disastrous debate defeat, President Biden was headed for defeat. Possibility of defeatHe may have lost to Donald Trump by just 1.5 percentage points. RealClearPolitics AverageBut he fell far behind in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, and consistently lagged in Pennsylvania, with New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota at the center of the debate.
Harris has changed all that: she is now outperforming Trump in the RCP average. Just under 2 pointsHarris beat Biden by 3.2 percentage points, but more importantly, she overturned Trump's lead. Battleground States.
Harris and Trump are within two points of each other in every battleground state, including North Carolina. It looked like Trump is sure to win the June election. Hopes that he could pull off a surprise deeper in the map have all but evaporated. Interestingly, the former president's approval rating has not budged an inch. On June 26th, it was at 46.6%, and on August 25th, it remained at 46.6%.
The election race has become closer since Trump's victory, and Harris is gaining momentum.
Harris runs counter to bad political climate
Harris should not be leading. In fact, the Democrats are headed for a disastrous defeat.
Recent YouGov The poll found that the Biden administration had net negative approval ratings on everything from crime to taxes to climate change. Inflation was particularly bad, with 60 percent disapproving compared to 32 percent approving. Among independents, 68 percent disapproved compared to just 20 percent approving. Among women, 59 percent disapproved, and 57 percent disapproved among Hispanics.
These numbers are Almost no change In June, Biden received negative ratings on all issues, with demographic similarities in inflation, with 60% disapproval compared to 31% approval. Biden also received similarly poor ratings on immigration, YouGov A July poll showed his approval rating at 29 percent to 59 percent, and among independents, 20 percent to 62 percent.
A YouGov poll had Trump and Biden tied at 42% approval rating in late June, but Harris now leads Trump 47% to 45%. Both candidates have a one-point lead in approval ratings. Comparing Trump/Biden in June to Trump/Harris today, Morning Consult went from Trump+4 to Harris+4; Rasmussen went from Trump+6 to Trump+3, and CBS News went from Trump+5 to Harris+3.
YouGov's crosstabs show Harris seeing big gains among Democrats' base: 8 points among women, 10 points among black voters, 12 points among Hispanics, and 8 points among 18-29 year olds. Harris saw a 6 point gain among independents, but her support remains low. Excluding the upset Biden erased a big chunk of Trump's gains. (Note that these sample sizes are small and subject to wild fluctuations, but the gains are big enough to be confident they are real.)
Typically, a vice president must be careful not to anger his boss when campaigning alone, but Biden's humiliating exit, abysmal poll numbers and overwhelming antipathy to Trump have given Harris more leeway than usual to campaign alone.
But Harris remains vice president to an unpopular president with unpopular policies that the party has barely rejected, and she will be unable to overcome a 28-point margin on the biggest issue, inflation (42 points among independents).
But Kamala Harris has another advantage: Her campaign staff knows how to read the polls and run a campaign.
Harris is doing her best to address two of her major weaknesses: inflation and immigration. Food Prices and Housing shortage (And as a result, prices rise.) And now, reborn Border HawkHer inflation-fighting proposals are questionable to say the least, but still. Her team is probably just trying to confuse things so that the campaign will be centered around Trump.
So far so good.
Trump Stuck in a Quagmire
Given the issue environment, a competent candidate should be well on his way to victory. But that's not the case: Trump is a bad candidate who campaigned badly.
Trump UndisciplinedHe is so obsessed with his grievances, so easily shaken by personal insults, and so convinced of his own genius that he refuses to take any advice. It is true that Trump's populism has torn apart parts of the Democratic coalition, but he has alienated and repelled many more voters than he has won.
In fact, Trump is still Mitt Romney's 47.2 percent when he ran (and lost) for office in 2012. Winning in politics means giving more than giving less.
Trump deserves credit for possessing an attention-grabbing ability that few other politicians have, as well as a keen sense of marketing and sloganeering. Make America Great Again is one of the greatest political slogans of all time, and it's a shame he's wasting this advantage.
Trump could likely win on his own if he had a competent campaign machine, but that's not going to happen.
The Trump campaign is not campaigning to win, they are campaigning for themselves and their candidate. For the past two years, inflation has been a top issue, yet the Trump campaign has largely ignored it. Inflation is 12 points more important to women than abortion, and women disapprove of Biden by 26 points. Inflation is 17 points more important to Hispanics than immigration, for a net disapproval of 20 points.
Inflation is intractable and has long-lasting effects. It's a big problem and it's not going to go away easily. Trump should have focused on this issue over the past year. Where are the ads from farmers complaining that Biden's over-regulation and rising costs are driving up their costs? Where are the small business owners complaining that they're being forced to raise prices and are losing profits?
Trump and Republican voters are far more focused on immigration, with 24% saying it's their top issue, 13 points more than independents (who consistently rank it behind health care and, of course, inflation). Even among independents, the Trump campaign is obsessing over inflation with the darker side of crime, which most voters see as a local issue. To work, crime needs to be individualized and localized, and Trump has largely failed there.
The problem of housing inflation and Exceeded This strategy, which links all of this to inflation, the surge in millions of illegal immigrants and the soaring cost of housing, should surely be successful. Trump might get a rare double boost from this attack, but his disorganized campaign can't seem to grasp this.
Stumbling to the finish line
Can a bitter, angry old man, racked by personal grievances and backed by a campaign team that can't read the polls and runs mediocre (at best) ads, win? Can a last-minute nominee with unpopular policies and a disgruntled electorate manage to pull off a victory?
This toxic combination will set up a tense battle over the next 68 days in which a major mistake by either candidate or an outside shock could determine the outcome. Perhaps never before in American history has a presidential election been so far out of the hands of both candidates.
Keith NortonHe is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.
