Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the close race for the White House, according to two polls released Thursday.
Harris has a tougher path to the White House than Trump, considering the Emerson College/Nexstar Media and Fabrizio Ward & Associates poll and the deeper themes playing out nationally and in individual states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. For example, one important theme to consider is that Trump regularly outperforms the polls.
Emerson College at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) from August 25 to 28 voteIn Arizona, where Trump leads Harris 50 percent to 47 percent, with 2 percent of respondents undecided, Emerson surveyed 720 voters in the state, with a confidence interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
In Georgia, the race remains close, with Harris leading by one point. Harris has 49% support, Trump 48%, and 3% undecided. However, the momentum seems to be in Trump's favor, as Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA), who is very popular with voters, has dedicated his “political organization” to supporting the 45th president.
The sample includes 800 voters, with a confidence interval of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
In Michigan, the Emerson poll has Harris at 50 percent, Trump at 47 percent, and 3 percent undecided, but this is in stark contrast to the Fabrizio Ward poll. Published By Pinpoint Policy Institute.
The poll, conducted Aug. 19-21 during the Democratic National Convention, showed Trump leading Harris in the Wolverine State, 48 percent to 46 percent, with 6 percent of voters undecided.
Notably, Michigan was the birthplace of the anti-Biden, anti-Harris no-holds-barred movement, where more than 100,000 voters protested Israeli and Hamas war policies during the Democratic primary and explicitly threatened not to vote in November unless major changes were made.
The Emerson College poll surveyed a sample of 800 Michigan voters and had a confidence interval of ± 3.4 percentage points, while the Fabrizio Ward poll surveyed a sample of 400 Michigan voters and had a margin of error of ± 4.9 percentage points. The sample size, dates, and margin of error are the same for the other states included in the poll, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Emerson College's Nevada results show a very close race, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 48%. Of 1,168 eligible voters, 3% are undecided. The confidence interval is ±2.8%.
North Carolina is also a close race, but Trump has the lead, according to Emerson College, who polled 775 likely voters, 49 percent to 48 percent, with a confidence interval of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
In Pennsylvania, perhaps the most crucial state, Harris and Trump are neck and neck at 48% each, with 3% of respondents saying they're in a vote. Fabrizio Ward's poll is also a close race, but with Trump leading Harris by one point, 47% to 46%. 7% of respondents are undecided.
Emerson College conducted a sample survey of 950 Keystone State voters, with a confidence interval of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
As with Michigan, the results of Fabrizio Ward's Wisconsin poll and the Emerson poll contrast with each other.
An Emerson College poll of 850 voters showed Trump narrowly ahead of Harris, 49 percent to 48 percent, with 3 percent undecided and with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, while a Fabrizio Ward poll showed Harris leading Trump, 49 percent to 45 percent.
If Trump wins in Wisconsin, as the Emerson College poll shows, it will be tricky for Harris, as she will have a tougher job of winning there than it would be for Trump to overcome his slim lead in Georgia.
As noted above, Kemp, who won Georgia by 7.5% in the 2022 midterm elections, will likely be a strong supporter of Trump in the Peach State. In contrast, Harris still faces a possible rebellion from undecided voters in Wisconsin.
In the primary, 48,812 people — Arab Americans, Muslims, young voters and far-left progressives — voted “no direction” in the state, a term used to describe the administration's “irresponsibility” to protest its treatment of Israel and Hamas. That was more than double the 20,682-vote margin by which Biden won the state in 2020.
At the start of last week's Democratic National Convention, a national pro-Palestinian group once called “Abandon Biden” said it would ensure that Harris lost the election.
Taken at face value, the picture painted by the Emerson College poll shows a very close race in the Electoral College, with Harris winning 263 to Trump's 256, and it all hinges on the tied state of Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes.
But as James Carville, a longtime Democratic strategist who helped former President Bill Clinton win the White House in 1992, emphasized to Bill Maher, the close polling results against Trump do not bode well for Democrats.
“The goal is to do well in November, but we're telling Democrats to be careful. First of all, most people say you have to win the popular vote by three votes to win the Electoral College,” Raging Cajun said. “So even if the polls say we're leading by two votes, if the polls are right, we're actually leading by one vote.”
“The other thing is that Trump has traditionally been chronically unpopular once he's on the ballot,” he added, “so in 2020, he had a delayed rebound in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Biden won those states by 7 or 8 points.”
Of course, the gap between these three states was much closer in 2020. Wisconsin Decided Less than 1% in Michigan went Trump trailed Biden by just under 3%. Came Pennsylvania is just 1.2 percent short.
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