The future of Mexico's democracy and investment climate is currently at stake. Lame-duck President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) has a very clear roadmap for the rest of his presidency: he wants to consolidate his party's supermajority in Congress, reform the judiciary, and eliminate all checks and balances.
Simply put, he wants to eradicate democracy in Mexico by installing a totalitarian regime like those in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
First, by creating new artificial seats LegislatureThrough pressure and persuasion, AMLO has managed to secure over 73% of the seats in the lower house of parliament, and is seeking to undermine the independence of the judiciary by establishing a system in which all judges are elected by popular vote.
of Mexican Government These reforms have been billed as making the judiciary truly independent and strengthening democracy, but in fact they have done the opposite: lowering professional standards and creating vulnerabilities to political, economic and criminal organizations in a country where drug cartels remain astoundingly powerful.
Bank of America Mexican Prime Minister Modi believes the 90 days between AMLO's departure and the inauguration of his elected successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, will determine Mexico's direction for the next decade. The report notes that AMLO's reforms are risky, will affect the character of Mexico's democracy and increase market volatility.
Morgan Stanley The firm also issued an underweight warning on Mexican stocks due to concerns over judicial reforms in particular. These changes could also increase uncertainty about the outlook for capital spending amid a bottleneck in near-shoring capacity.
In other words, the Cuban model is being pursued in Mexico, under which everything is a one-party state and constitutional guarantees have no value. According to Article 94 of the Constitution: Cuban Constitution“Everyone has the right to due process in both judicial and administrative matters as a guarantee of his legal security.” In reality, the supreme interests of the revolution trample over all human rights.
In Venezuela, the Supreme Court of Justice functions as a branch of the Bolivarian government. This is what the court has acknowledged It accused President Nicolas Maduro of fraud and said his declared victory was beyond dispute and open to appeal, and the United Nations said the body's ruling was neither fair nor credible.
in NicaraguaThe Supreme Court has been reduced to a subordinate institution to the party and family of dictator Daniel Ortega. Legal security has long since disappeared. Confiscation of private property is commonplace, despite being prohibited by the Nicaraguan Constitution.
AMLO's plan seemed to be going ahead smoothly, but a few days ago, the Biden administration broke its long silence and warned about the huge risks these changes in the judicial system pose.
Ken Salazar, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico, said: He said that direct election of judges poses a great risk to the functioning of Mexico's democracy: “Judicial reform must have the right kinds of safeguards to ensure that the judicial branch is strong and not subject to political corruption.” He also noted that the reforms would threaten the historic trade relationship between Mexico and the United States.
The Democrats and Republicans in the Senate Joint statement. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Ben Cardin (D-MD) and Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), along with Senators Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Marco Rubio (R-FL), issued a statement expressing deep concerns about proposed Mexican constitutional amendments that could undermine the independence of the judiciary and violate the provisions of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement.
“We urge the Lopez Obrador administration and the incoming Sheinbaum administration to pursue only reforms that improve professional qualifications, fight corruption, protect judicial independence, and strengthen investor confidence.”
Mexico is on the wrong path. In a system based on absolute power, the first casualty of judicial reform is legal certainty, the second is foreign investment, and the third is the sacred right to private property.
In this model, it doesn’t matter how much you know about the law, it matters who you know. In this system, everything is solved the same way as in a banana dictatorship.
Mexico, America's Largest Trading Partner and One of the world's 12 largest economiesWe deserve better institutions: strong, robust and reliable institutions that provide legal certainty and economic predictability. Businesses need this, and democracies need it even more.
Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States, and former Norwegian Peace Corps member.
