MIAMI – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping an eye on several disturbances that have the potential to develop into tropical storms, but forecasters are primarily focused on one swirling a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic Ocean.
The disturbance is located east of the Caribbean Sea, and associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organizing, according to the NHC.
“Late next week, this hurricane will move over very warm waters and could experience favorable atmospheric conditions to intensify in the western Caribbean,” said Fox Weather hurricane expert Brian Norcross, “but we need to wait for the hurricane to settle first, so it's not something we can predict with any certainty.”
The NHC estimates there's a 40-50% chance of the storm strengthening into a tropical zone over the next week, and Norcross believes it will remain at that level until the storm shows signs of better organization.
“Many long-range forecasts have this storm turning north into the Gulf of Mexico around the end of next week, but that's too far away to watch for a specific forecast,” Norcross said. “At this time, watch for the threat of storms near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula around the end of next week and into the Southeast the following week.”
The NHC said that while the disturbances off the coast of Africa have subsided and are no longer being monitored, new threats could emerge in the area in the near future.
The NHC said the tropical depression moving over western Africa is forecast to move offshore on Monday and may continue to experience slow development over the next week depending on environmental conditions while moving slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Disruptions on Gulf Coast make development unlikely, but flood threat persists
The trough of low pressure currently producing large but disorganized thunderstorms along and off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana remains unlikely to develop into tropical conditions, according to the NHC.
With few winds to steer the storm's path, it will meander close to the coast for much of next week, but the NHC said slow tropical development is possible if the storm remains offshore in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently, the NHC says there is a low chance that it will become at least a tropical storm within the next week. Regardless of whether it does, the agency warned that heavy rains could cause flash flooding along the Louisiana and North Texas coasts in the coming days.
