Following a brief lull in activity, severe weather is set to return later this month across the historic Tornado Alley, which runs from Nebraska down to Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of northern Texas.
This expected shift will likely bring intense storms affecting around 40 million individuals from the Southern Plains, starting Friday and continuing through Mother’s Day.
Damaging thunderstorms with heavy hail and wind gusts reaching 90 mph are anticipated late Friday afternoon into the evening.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has rated the risk of severe thunderstorms as Level 2 out of 5 for areas in southern Kansas, most of central and eastern Oklahoma, and parts of northern Texas.
This includes cities like Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Wichita Falls. It’s worth noting, though, that the likelihood of weak tornadoes occurring in this region seems low.
A broader Level 1 threat also spans central and southwest Missouri, the Dallas metropolitan area, and a significant portion of the Gulf Coast east of Houston.
The SPC has also identified a Level 1 threat for parts of south Texas, just south and east of San Antonio, where there’s potential for considerable hail if conditions align.
Severe weather is in the forecast for various areas in the Southern Plains into Mother’s Day, though the threat appears to ease somewhat on Saturday, affecting regions from far northeastern Texas to southwestern Oklahoma.
A Level 2 threat will reach Dallas and parts of central Texas on Mother’s Day.
While gusty winds and hail damage are the primary concerns, isolated tornadoes could still develop.
Tornado Alley Could See Increased Activity
Historically, May records the highest number of tornadoes annually, largely due to heightened activity across Tornado Alley.
Thus far this season, though, most intense storms have been seen in the Midwest and parts of the South, including Mississippi, where numerous tornadoes struck during a tornado emergency earlier this week.
Currently, a significant drop in the jet stream is inhibiting the formation of severe storms over the Plains, yet many long-range forecasts suggest that this pattern could shift back to the West by late May.
As this situation evolves, warm air from the Gulf may start to flow over the Plains, creating favorable conditions for storm development. This very pattern contributed to deadly tornadoes in the Southern Plains from April 23-28.
The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) long-range forecast indicates above-average rainfall could occur across the Southwest and Central Plains. However, as always with long-range forecasts, things might change, and monitoring for updates is essential.
